The rapid development of AI is driving unprecedented electricity demand, making the urgent expansion and upgrading of global power grids imperative.

At the G20 Summit on September 1, Musk warned that the AI industry is facing a shortage of power supply. He projected that AI chips may face a power shortfall of at least 15 gigawatts by 2027, as the growth rate of AI chip production is approximately 40% to 50%, while the annual growth rate of power supply outside China is only 10% to 20%. He also pointed out that companies such as Google and Anthropic rent$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$computing power precisely because SpaceX has built its own power generation facilities.

Musk's concerns are not unfounded. Latest data indicates that power supply has become the "ceiling" constraining the expansion of AI computing capacity in the United States.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) clearly stated in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO): Following 2025,$American Electric Power (AEP.US)$after electricity consumption set a new annual historical record for the second consecutive year, driven by the dual forces of exploding AI computing demand and the broader societal transition to electrification, U.S. national electricity consumption will continue to hit new highs in 2026 and 2027, repeatedly breaking historical peaks.

On one hand, data centers are driving U.S. electricity consumption to historical highs. Data from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) shows that data centers currently account for 5% of U.S. electricity demand, a figure that could triple by 2035. In Virginia, this proportion has already exceeded 25%.

On the other hand, due to power shortages, the construction speed of data centers is significantly lagging behind plans. A research report released by Data Center Watch indicates that in the first quarter of this year alone, the total value of data center projects blocked or delayed across the United States reached approximately $130 billion. A report by JPMorgan, citing analysis based on satellite imagery, points out that more than 60% of data center projects scheduled for completion in 2027 have not yet started construction, while another 7% are already experiencing delays. The primary reasons involve power supply bottlenecks and local opposition.

Global power grid construction is gradually unfolding

Against the backdrop of an imbalance between power supply and demand, grid construction has become a global consensus.

Some analysts believe that the main pressure behind rising electricity costs in the United States currently stems from intermediate links such as transmission and distribution, rather than power generation. Brian Janous, former Vice President of Energy at Microsoft, compared ultra-high-voltage transmission lines to the "interstate highways" of the grid system: "Just as interstate highways make bulk cargo transportation possible, the power grid needs high-voltage backbone lines. If you want to expand electricity demand, you must expand the high-voltage transmission network."

Greg Abel, Buffett’s designated successor, previously pointed out that the large-scale construction of data centers and the resulting demand pressure on the power grid are creating significant growth opportunities for the utilities sector. He expects the share of electricity consumption by data centers to rise by another 5 to 10 percentage points over the next five years, potentially reaching 50% in the long term, thereby becoming the most promising growth curve in the energy business.

The U.S. power grid is undergoing an epic expansion. Early this year, three major regional grid operators—the Texas Interconnection, the Mid-Atlantic region, and the Midwest Independent System Operator—successively approved transmission expansion projects totaling $75 billion. The core of these initiatives involves constructing a batch of 765-kilovolt ultra-high-voltage lines, which represent the highest operating voltage level currently in use in the United States and offer six times the transmission capacity of traditional lines. The total mileage of this "electricity superhighway" will expand to 10,000 miles, quadrupling the existing mileage of approximately 2,000 miles.

South Korea's largest power utility,$Korea Electric Power (KEP.US)$Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO, referred to as KEPCO), has already$Samsung Electronics (005930.KR)$and$SK hynix (SKHY.US)$A proposal has been put forward to prepay a total of KRW 25 trillion (approximately RMB 123.8 billion) in electricity fees for the next five years (2027–2031). The funds raised will be used to build power grids for the semiconductor industrial clusters in Yongin and Honam.

Computing-power and electricity coordination is expected to drive a revaluation of power asset values.

As AI data centers continue to expand, the rigid growth in electricity consumption for computing power has become an irreversible trend. The continuous increase in data center power density and significant load fluctuations pose severe challenges to the stable operation of the power grid. "Computing-power and electricity coordination" has thus become an inevitable path to address these issues and support the high-quality development of the computing industry.

Recently, the National Energy Administration held a meeting to deploy tasks for the construction of new-type power grids, proposing a comprehensive rollout of major initiatives. On August 19, the National Development and Reform Commission convened a coordination and scheduling mechanism meeting for the "Six Major Networks," studying the establishment of a "2+3+N" coordination mechanism linking computing power networks, new-type power grids, and next-generation communication networks. On August 3, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Construction of New Power Systems," proposing the initial establishment of a new-type power grid that is safe, reliable, green, low-carbon, robust, resilient, intelligent, and flexible.

Orient Securities stated that the long-term ceiling for electricity consumption driven by computing power may be higher than current market expectations. Power supply assurance capability is becoming a core competitive variable in the era of computing power, and the synergy between computing and electricity is expected to drive a revaluation of power asset values.

In terms of volume, the rapid growth in computing power brings substantial electricity demand, providing stable and ample absorption space for green power;

In terms of price, as the weight of electricity costs rises and supply-demand tightness increases at computing hubs, green power pricing may shift from "curtailment-driven discounts" back to market values that reflect resource scarcity.

The institution noted that, in the long run, the profit ceiling and valuation center for power operators are expected to rise simultaneously, with their business models potentially transitioning from traditional "power sales" to "token revenue sharing."

Dongguan Securities stated that the synergy between computing power and electricity deeply integrates computing load with green power supply. This not only provides data centers with stable, low-cost green electricity but also enhances the absorption efficiency of new energy, achieving a mutually beneficial alignment between supply and demand.

A research report by CITIC Securities stated that the synergy between computing power and electricity is a key infrastructure for expanding domestic computing capacity; without this synergy, high-quality development of domestic computing power cannot be achieved. China's energy system can provide vast scalable space for domestic computing power, free from grid connection queuing constraints, allowing each unit of CAPEX to be converted into actual computing power more efficiently. The National Energy Administration has guided that China's data center electricity consumption will reach 800 billion kWh by 2030. Based on this guidance, the incremental scale of China's data centers during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is projected to be 78.5 GW, corresponding to capital expenditures of RMB 10.7 trillion. The synergy between computing power and electricity encompasses both inside and outside data center parks. As the primary means of coupling electricity and computing power, the total investment scale is estimated at approximately RMB 2 trillion.

Editor/melody