The race for underwriting slots in Anthropic’s IPO is nearing its conclusion, with Morgan Stanley poised to secure the lead left-bookrunner position and Goldman Sachs likely serving as the stabilizing agent. JPMorgan, Citi, and Barclays are also expected to secure significant roles in the transaction. Market expectations suggest Anthropic’s valuation could surpass $2 trillion; however, its annualized revenue of $65 billion falls short of aggressive forecasts, while competition from OpenAI poses challenges to its high valuation.
AI unicorn Anthropic is poised to launch the largest initial public offering (IPO) in Wall Street history, as the fierce competition among top-tier investment banks for underwriting mandates nears its conclusion.
On Saturday, citing four sources familiar with the matter, the Financial Times reported that Morgan Stanley is in a favorable position to secure the "lead left" underwriter role for this IPO, while Goldman Sachs is expected to serve as the stabilizing agent, overseeing key trading phases during Anthropic's initial listing period.
Investors anticipate that Anthropic's listing valuation will reach $2 trillion or more, surpassing$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$to become the largest IPO in history. If this valuation materializes, early investors stand to realize tens of billions of dollars in paper gains. Anthropic's market performance will also serve as a key barometer of current market risk appetite for high-growth AI enterprises.
Morgan Stanley takes the lead, Goldman Sachs provides price support, and JPMorgan joins the ranks
In the allocation of underwriting roles for this IPO,$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$holds the most prominent advantageous position.
According to reports, Morgan Stanley has led discussions with potential investors regarding Anthropic's offering price in recent weeks, which is one of the core functions of the "lead left" underwriter. This role controls the direction of valuation negotiations and determines which hedge funds, institutional investors, and sovereign wealth funds receive the largest stock allocations, representing significant reputational capital for Wall Street investment banks.
However, sources cautioned that Morgan Stanley's final appointment has not yet been confirmed and remains subject to change.
Goldman Sachs is expected to act as the stabilizing agent. Notably, in SpaceX's listing transaction in June of this year, the roles of the two banks were reversed: Goldman Sachs served as the lead underwriter, while Morgan Stanley acted as the stabilizing agent. Each bank received $100 million from the $500 million fee pool shared among more than 20 participating institutions.
In addition,$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$、$Citigroup (C.US)$and$Barclays (BCS.US)$JPMorgan is also expected to secure a significant role in this transaction, as all three banks have previously provided debt financing to Anthropic.
The listing may be postponed to mid-October.
Anthropic had initially planned to publicly file its IPO prospectus as early as next week, but the timeline has not yet been finalized.
According to the latest report from Reuters, Anthropic has postponed filing its IPO prospectus until late September. The roadshow is scheduled to begin as early as mid-October, with the aim of completing the listing before the U.S. midterm elections in November. This delay is linked to the company's ongoing negotiations for a $15 billion credit facility, which must be secured before subsequent processes can proceed.
This IPO comes shortly after SpaceX completed a record-breaking $86 billion financing round in June at a valuation of $1.78 trillion. Market participants are closely watching whether the enthusiasm for high valuations of AI assets can be sustained.
Revenue growth is strong but falls short of the most optimistic expectations.
Anthropic's valuation has surged significantly over the past year, currently exceeding $900 billion. Investors expect its listing valuation to surpass $2 trillion, more than doubling its current valuation.
However, the company's revenue performance has not fully met the most aggressive market expectations. In August, Anthropic informed shareholders that its July revenue, annualized, reached $65 billion, a significant increase from $47 billion in May, but still below the $80 billion annualized sales threshold previously anticipated by some investors.
Meanwhile, competitive pressure cannot be ignored. Anthropic's largest competitor, OpenAI, has recently gained strong momentum, releasing its latest AI model this week and describing it as the "world's smartest" model. Some market analysts warn that OpenAI's robust resurgence could exert downward pressure on Anthropic's listing valuation.
The Next Battle: OpenAI's IPO Underwriting Slots Come into View
The competition for underwriting slots in Anthropic's IPO is merely a prelude to a broader rivalry. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are also vying for underwriting mandates for OpenAI's IPO, which is expected to list in early next year.
The position of lead underwriter not only yields substantial direct revenue but also represents a strategic move for investment banks to cultivate client relationships and enhance market reputation in the AI sector.
As the wave of AI companies going public approaches, those who can secure top-tier targets first will gain a competitive edge in this protracted contest.
Editor/melody