Key Events for the Upcoming Week
From September 7 to 11, the main themes driving trading in Hong Kong and US equities will center on US inflation, US Treasury yields, Apple’s autumn product launch, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision, as well as the expansion of the Stock Connect program and new stock listings.
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These represent the final batch of key inflation data before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting scheduled for September 15–16. Previously, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, significantly exceeding market expectations. As of Friday's close, market pricing indicated that the probability of a Fed rate hike in September had risen to nearly 60%, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to 4.78%, approaching the 5% level widely regarded as a potential pressure point for equities.
Consequently, the core dynamic for the coming week will be whether inflation data continues to reinforce bets on rate hikes or provides justification for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady. With the Fed entering its pre-meeting blackout period, the impact of PPI and CPI figures on U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. dollar, gold, and valuations of technology growth stocks may be further amplified.
U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for Labor Day, with liquidity expected to concentrate during Asian and European trading sessions. After U.S. equity trading resumes on Tuesday, the market will quickly enter a dense period of macroeconomic data releases, central bank decisions, and technology sector events.
Sequential Release of U.S. PPI and CPI Data Puts Rate Hike Expectations to a Critical Test
At 20:30 on Thursday, the U.S. August PPI year-over-year and month-over-month figures will be released. Market consensus from the economic calendar suggests the monthly PPI may rise from 0.00% to 0.40%, and the annual rate may increase from 4.70% to 5.20%. Bloomberg Economics forecasts the PPI to rise 5.3% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, with core PPI increasing 4.7% year-over-year.
Rising energy prices, which have pushed up transportation and storage costs, are the primary drivers behind the resurgence of producer-side inflation. Components of the PPI linked to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index are expected to contribute approximately 5 basis points to monthly inflation. If production costs continue to pass through to the consumer side, the market may revise upward its assessment of inflation stickiness and policy rates, potentially sustaining upward pressure on Treasury yields.
At 20:30 on Friday, the U.S. August CPI and core CPI data will follow. The market expects headline CPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month and core CPI to increase 0.2% month-over-month. In year-over-year terms, headline CPI is projected at 3.4%, unchanged from July, while core CPI is forecast at 2.5%.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has explicitly stated that August inflation data will 'significantly influence' his vote at the September monetary policy meeting: he favors holding rates steady if core inflation does not exceed 0.2% month-over-month, but would consider a rate hike if it rises above 0.3%. This statement makes the month-over-month change in core CPI the most direct trading threshold for the week.
If core CPI meets or falls below 0.2%, the market may reduce bets on a rate hike, alleviating the pressure of long-end Treasury yields on growth stock valuations. However, if core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher, especially if service inflation heats up simultaneously, expectations for a September rate hike could intensify. This would likely support the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, while high-valuation technology stocks and gold may face heightened volatility.
Doubling of U.S. Treasury Buyback Program Takes Effect; 10-Year Note Auction Tests Long-End Demand
The U.S. Treasury will launch its previously announced "doubling" of the Treasury buyback program this week, with relevant adjustments taking effect on September 9. The initiative aims to improve liquidity in the bond market and alleviate pressure from the rapid rise in long-end U.S. Treasury yields.
At 01:00 on Thursday, the U.S. Treasury will also hold an auction for 10-year Treasury notes. The winning rate for the previous auction was 4.68%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53. As the current yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has risen to 4.78%, demand at this auction, the level of participation by indirect bidders, and the tail spread will serve as important signals for judging whether investors are willing to increase their holdings of long-term bonds at high yield levels.
If auction demand remains robust and inflation data is moderate, long-end yields may decline temporarily; conversely, if auction performance is weak while PPI and CPI readings remain hot, the risk of yields approaching 5% will rise, potentially exerting simultaneous pressure on the banking, real estate, and high-valuation growth sectors.
ECB Announces Interest Rate Decision, with Energy Inflation and Policy Stance in Focus
The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, followed by a press conference held by President Lagarde. Market expectations for this decision are significantly divided, with one scenario pointing to a 25-basis-point rate hike and another suggesting that the ECB may keep rates unchanged.
The eurozone's inflation rate rose to 3.3% in August, reaching its highest level in nearly three years. The rise in energy prices driven by the situation in the Middle East is a key factor behind the recent resurgence in inflation. Markets will not only price in this rate decision but also closely watch how Lagarde assesses energy shocks, wage and services inflation, and whether she hints at further policy tightening.
If the ECB signals a more hawkish stance, the euro and European government bond yields may rise, creating spillover effects across global bond markets; if it emphasizes risks to economic growth instead, market expectations for subsequent rate hikes may diminish.
Apple's Foldable iPhone Debuts: Pricing and Initial Sales Test High-End Demand
Apple will hold its autumn product launch event at 01:00 Beijing time on Thursday, under the theme "Shine Bright, Start New." This marks the first product launch since John Ternus took over as CEO. The first foldable iPhone will take center stage, alongside the release of high-end models such as the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max.
According to TrendForce estimates, rising memory prices have increased the total cost of the iPhone 18 Pro by nearly 40% year-on-year. Against the backdrop of significantly higher cost pressures, whether Apple absorbs these costs by raising prices, adjusting storage configurations, or compressing hardware profit margins will directly influence market judgments on profitability for the new product cycle.
Beyond hardware innovation, the pricing, inventory scale, and initial sales performance of the first foldable screen product will also test the resilience of demand for high-end smartphones. If market acceptance is strong, the foldable screen, storage, panel, and precision manufacturing supply chains may benefit; if pricing significantly exceeds consumer affordability, the impact of product innovation on sales volume may be limited. Apple may also postpone the start of pre-orders until the weekend.
The Huawei Mate XT 2 and Xiaomi 18 Fold are also set to debut this week. $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ The autumn flagship new product launch event is scheduled for 7:00 PM on September 7, marking the official market release of the Xiaomi Pengcheng N70 Pro, N70 Max, and N90 Max. Also unveiled at the event are two new flagship products: the Xiaomi 18 Fold, a new foldable flagship smartphone, and the Xiaomi Pad 9 Pro Max, both featuring the debut of the Xuanjie O3 AI flagship processor.
Huawei will hold an all-scenario new product launch event on September 7. On August 25, Huawei Consumer Business Group announced that its next-generation tri-fold flagship smartphone, the Huawei Mate XT 2, is scheduled for release on September 7 and will be the first to feature the HarmonyOS 7 operating system.
As Oracle and Adobe release their results, scrutiny falls on AI order conversion and monetization capabilities.
Regarding earnings reports from U.S. tech companies, Oracle and Adobe are scheduled to announce their quarterly results sequentially this week.
$Oracle (ORCL.US)$ These stocks will become key observation targets for AI trading. Market focus extends beyond current revenue and profits to include cloud infrastructure backlog, AI data center demand, contract-to-revenue conversion rates, and future capital expenditure plans. If order growth is strong but capital expenditures rise sharply in tandem, the market will further assess whether the speed of revenue realization can cover depreciation, financing costs, and data center construction pressures.
$Adobe (ADBE.US)$ The core focus lies on the commercialization progress of generative AI features such as Firefly, and whether AI capabilities can translate into accelerated subscription growth and higher average revenue per user (ARPU). If AI product usage grows but contributes limited revenue, the market may reassess the return on investment period for software companies' AI investments.
$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ The company will release its August revenue report on Thursday. As a high-frequency indicator for observing demand for AI computing power and advanced process nodes, its monthly revenue changes will provide supplementary clues to the semiconductor industry's sentiment. From September 11 to 13, the 2026 China Computing Power Conference will also be held in Langfang, focusing on computing infrastructure and AI infrastructure, which may drive event-related opportunities for servers, data centers, and network equipment sectors.
Expansion of the Stock Connect takes effect; Longsys and Youdi Robotics list on the exchange.
Regarding Hong Kong stocks, there are no major corporate earnings reports scheduled for the new week; however, adjustments to the Stock Connect scheme and new listings warrant attention.
$BIDU-W (09888.HK)$ 、 $MANYCORE TECH (00068.HK)$ Securities such as [Company Name] will be formally added to the list of eligible stocks for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect's Southbound trading channel starting Monday. Inclusion in the Southbound trading channel provides these companies with a new avenue for capital inflows from mainland investors. Their subsequent performance will depend on asset allocation demand, valuation levels, and trading activity, rather than solely on the adjustment itself.
$LONGSYS (09976.HK)$ The company is expected to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday. It plans to issue approximately 26 million shares, with an offer price not exceeding HKD 240.6 per share, representing a discount of approximately 45% to the closing price of its A-shares listed in Shenzhen last Friday. The fundraising amount will not exceed HKD 6.28 billion; if the over-allotment option is exercised, the total proceeds could reach up to USD 1.06 billion.
The significant pricing disparity between the two markets may attract arbitrage and valuation reassessment trades. However, initial listing performance should be assessed in light of the free float, subscription structure, and risk appetite within the semiconductor sector. $EXCELLAND ROBOT (03231.HK)$ [Company Name] will list on Wednesday.
US-Iran tensions continue to disrupt oil prices
The US-Iran conflict remains one of the most significant unscheduled risks this week. As both sides engage in a new round of mutual attacks, international oil prices have rebounded to their highest levels since July. Over the weekend, multiple explosions were reported around Kharg Island, a core hub for Iran's oil exports, although no smoke or open flames were observed at the scene, and the source of the blasts was initially unconfirmed. Other reports indicated that the US military attacked a small oil tanker in the waters near the island, with no casualties reported so far.
While the current intensity of hostilities is lower than during the initial phase of the war and the two escalation periods in July, US intelligence agencies believe that Iran may be preparing to prolong the conflict for several months and could be planning another major escalation. If energy infrastructure such as Kharg Island is substantially affected, the risk premium on crude oil supply could rise rapidly, transmitting through transportation and production costs to the PPI and CPI. If military actions remain restrained, oil price volatility will likely depend more on inventory levels and supply-demand forecasts.
Key Earnings and Event Calendar for the New Week
Related Reading:Oracle to release earnings; Adobe continues to test the mettle of its "AI applications"; Weekly Earnings Preview (Sep 7–11)
Monday, September 7
Key Highlights: U.S. stock market holiday; Expansion of Stock Connect eligible stocks; Xiaomi autumn product launch event
On the economic data front, releases include the Eurozone's September Sentix Investor Confidence Index and the revised annual GDP growth rate for the second quarter.
16:30 Eurozone September Sentix Investor Confidence Index;
17:00 Revised annual GDP growth rate for the Eurozone's second quarter and the final quarterly change in seasonally adjusted employment for the second quarter.
Major Events:$BIDU-W (09888.HK)$ 、 $MANYCORE TECH (00068.HK)$ were officially added to the list of eligible stocks under the Southbound Trading of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ The autumn flagship product launch event is scheduled for 7:00 PM on September 7, with the official market launch of the Xiaomi Pengcheng N70 Pro, N70 Max, and N90 Max.
Regarding new listings, $MEDCAPTAIN (02041.HK)$ Listed on the stock exchange.
In addition, U.S. markets were closed for one day due to Labor Day.
Tuesday (September 8)
Keywords: Longsys listing; U.S. small business confidence and inflation expectations
Regarding economic data, the U.S. NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for August and the New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations for August will be released.
18:00 U.S. NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for August;
23:00 New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations for August.
In major developments, Canada's retaliatory tariffs equivalent to USD 20 billion against the United States officially took effect.
Regarding new listings, $LONGSYS (09976.HK)$ Listed on the stock exchange.
Wednesday (September 9)
Keywords: China CPI; Doubling of U.S. Treasury buyback program takes effect; Youdi Robotics lists on stock exchange
Regarding economic data, China's August CPI year-on-year rate and the weekly change in U.S. ADP employment for the week ended August 22 will be released.
09:30 China's August CPI year-on-year rate;
20:15 Weekly change in U.S. ADP employment for the week ended August 22.
Regarding major events, the U.S. Treasury Department's plan to double its Treasury bond buyback program takes effect. The Republican National Committee will also hold its first midterm election convention during the same period, with market attention focused on economic policy proposals regarding tariffs, fiscal policy, and immigration.
Regarding new listings, $EXCELLAND ROBOT (03231.HK)$ Listed on the stock exchange.
Thursday (September 10)
Keywords: U.S. PPI; Oracle and Adobe earnings reports; Apple product launch event; 10-year U.S. Treasury auction
Regarding economic data, U.S. August PPI and initial jobless claims figures will be released.
20:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 5;
20:30 U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) year-over-year and month-over-month rates for August;
22:00 U.S. Annualized Total Existing Home Sales for August; U.S. Wholesale Sales month-over-month rate for July.
Regarding major events, at 1:00 AM Beijing Time, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Apple will hold its autumn product launch event, unveiling the first foldable iPhone and the iPhone 18 Pro series; at the same time, the U.S. Treasury will conduct an auction of 10-year Treasury notes.
At 20:15 Beijing Time, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference held by President Lagarde at 20:30. Market participants are closely monitoring the impact of rising energy prices on the inflation trajectory and subsequent policy stance.
OPEC will release its Monthly Oil Market Report on the day, with the specific time to be determined.
Regarding earnings reports, $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ 、 $Adobe (ADBE.US)$ Earnings reports will be released after the U.S. stock market closes. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ The sales revenue report for August will be released.
Friday (September 11)
Key Terms: US CPI; University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary)
Regarding economic data, figures such as the US CPI for August and the preliminary one-year inflation expectation for September were released.
20:30 US Unadjusted CPI and Core CPI Year-over-Year for August; US Seasonally Adjusted CPI and Core CPI Month-over-Month for August;
22:00 Preliminary One-Year Inflation Expectation for September in the US; Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September in the US.
In terms of major events, the Central Bank of Russia will announce its interest rate decision; CME Group will expand trading hours for 100-ounce silver futures to 24-hour all-day trading.
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Editor/Jayden