Goldman Sachs Group recently released a research report on Tesla (TSLA.US), maintaining a "Neutral" rating with a 12-month target price of $360.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs Group recently released $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ a research report, maintaining a "Neutral" rating with a 12-month target price of $360. The firm believes that while Tesla is poised to establish significant cost advantages in the robotaxi market through its Cybercab, the scalability of its autonomous driving software remains the core variable determining its business prospects and valuation potential.
Cybercab officially hits the road; unsupervised mileage surpasses one million miles
On September 3 local time, Tesla held a launch event in Austin, Texas, officially unveiling its autonomous taxi, the Cybercab, and announcing the commencement of paid ride services in designated areas of Austin. The vehicle eliminates traditional manual controls such as the steering wheel, brake pedal, accelerator pedal, and side mirrors, featuring a two-seat layout designed specifically for fully autonomous scenarios. Tesla also announced that the cumulative "unsupervised" mileage of its Robotaxi fleet has exceeded 1 million miles. According to data from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles, as of September 3, there were 420 autonomous vehicles registered by Tesla in Texas, including 45 Cybercabs.
However, just hours after the launch event concluded, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced it was initiating a compliance review of approximately 1,000 Cybercabs, focusing on Tesla's self-certification process and technical basis for the model's adherence to Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards. As a result, Tesla's stock plunged 5.92% on September 4, closing at $354.08, wiping out approximately $88 billion in market capitalization in a single day. This followed a 5.42% surge in the previous trading session driven by the Cybercab launch.
Ashok Elluswami, Head of AI at Tesla, subsequently confirmed that Robotaxi services are expected to achieve 24/7 operations around October, pending the next round of technical integration for FSD v15. Described by Tesla as an "architectural leap," FSD v15 features a model parameter scale approximately ten times that of the current version, with seven parallel improvement tracks. Currently, Robotaxi services are in regular operation in six U.S. cities (Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa), operating daily from 6:00 AM to 10:00 PM.
Goldman Sachs: Software is the key to scalability
In their research note, Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that Tesla's focus on creating low-cost vehicles, leveraging its integrated manufacturing processes and pure vision perception system, is likely to enhance the economic viability of its Robotaxi business. If Tesla can keep the production cost of the Cybercab within the target range of $20,000 to $30,000 during mass production, it would enjoy a cost advantage of $0.05 to $0.30 per mile compared to autonomous driving competitors with earlier costs ranging from $50,000 to $100,000. Industry analysis estimates the unit cost of the Cybercab at approximately $23,000 to $25,000, whereas Waymo's unit cost ranges from $70,000 to $150,000.
However, Goldman Sachs also emphasized that for investors, the greater uncertainty lies in whether Tesla's AI solution can support the rapid geographic scalability of its autonomous driving software. Broader operational coverage will generate more revenue and spread the vehicle cost base over more miles, making software economics a more critical factor in the Robotaxi profitability model than the price of the vehicle itself.
Goldman Sachs' scenario analysis indicates that in an optimistic scenario, Tesla's stock price could reach $500, while in a pessimistic scenario, it could fall to approximately $150. Key downside risks include slowing electric vehicle demand, intensifying competition, tariff pressures, delays in the rollout of FSD and other products, as well as operational and margin pressures.
Market divergence on Tesla remains significant. According to LSEG statistics, 24 analysts currently rate Tesla as "Buy" or higher, 23 rate it as "Hold," and 7 maintain a "Sell" or lower rating. Following the Cybercab launch, Gordon Johnson, an analyst at GLJ Research, reiterated his "Sell" rating with a target price of just $24.86, arguing that Tesla's current P/E ratio of 328x represents severe market overvaluation. Morgan Stanley maintained its "Equal-weight" rating with a target price of $400, while StoneX reiterated its "Buy" rating with a target price of $475 after the Cybercab launch.