Macro News
U.S. military claims destruction of five Iranian oil tankers; Iran warns of attacks on tankers in Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports
U.S. Central Command stated that U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil transport vessels on September 8, noting that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had launched two ballistic missile attacks against U.S. warships in the two days prior to the operation, with no U.S. casualties reported. Iranian media had previously reported that an oil tanker was struck by a U.S. missile near Kharg Island, with crew members evacuating and no casualties reported. Iran also warned that tankers in Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports could become targets of attacks and urged crew members to leave. Amid these developments, WTI crude oil approached $94 per barrel intraday, while Brent crude briefly exceeded $99 per barrel.
The U.S. Treasury Department announced long-term bond buyback volumes tonight, with market attention focused on the intensity of Bessent's actions
The U.S. Treasury Department will announce the maximum amount for buybacks of 10- to 20-year Treasury bonds at 23:00 Beijing time on September 9, and disclose the actual purchase volume on September 10. Reports indicate that the market generally expects Treasury Secretary Bessent’s buyback intensity to exceed previously announced targets. The Treasury had previously stated that each long-term Treasury buyback would be at least $4 billion before November 4, doubling the original $2 billion figure, while retaining room for further expansion. These arrangements are part of the Treasury bond buyback program launched by the U.S. Treasury Department in May 2024.
Morgan Stanley analysts stated that due to financing constraints, the upper limit for a single buyback may be approximately $10 billion. If this level is reached, the quarterly net issuance of U.S. Treasuries with maturities over 20 years could decrease by about 55%. Bloomberg strategist Feagan noted that if the buyback volume exceeds expectations, the market may interpret it as a stronger policy signal from the Treasury, driving short-term declines in long-term yields, although the buyback volume remains limited relative to the overall U.S. Treasury market. Barclays strategists Pradhan and Hu expect the Treasury to adopt an open-ended phrasing of “at least $4 billion per operation” to retain flexibility for adjustments. The market will subsequently focus on the buyback volume, frequency, and long-term guidance, with the 30-year swap spread likely to more directly reflect market judgments on supply changes.
Bessent discusses the yen: Possesses information on Bank of Japan policy, unfazed by market betting
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, discussing the yen exchange rate, stated that the United States can utilize its balance sheet to serve foreign policy objectives and noted that during previous interventions in the yen market, there was full understanding of the movements of the Bank of Japan and policymakers. He emphasized that he possesses information not available to the market and expressed no fear of traders taking opposing positions. Bessent believes that markets are operated by people who are prone to errors. Regarding the bond market, he noted that sentiment toward U.S. Treasuries was extremely pessimistic at one point in August, but the U.S. bond market has performed better than those of other countries, and the Treasury is attempting to slow the pace of adjustment in the bond market. Morgan Stanley stated that carry trades can withstand yen appreciation, and unless there is a catalyst that further increases overall volatility, the recent rise in the yen is unlikely to derail the popular carry trade in emerging markets.
Raise interest rates or bow to the White House? Fed independence faces policy test
With the Federal Reserve’s September meeting approaching, Macquarie has brought forward its first rate hike forecast from December to September and expects another rate hike in the first quarter of 2027. Bank of America warned that if the core PCE month-on-month reaches 0.24% or higher in August and the Fed still takes no action, the market may question its anti-inflation credibility and push up long-term yields. Claudia Sahm, proposer of the “Sahm Rule,” opposes delaying policy adjustments to avoid midterm elections, arguing that this would introduce political factors into decision-making. She advocates that the Fed should neither change policy to accommodate the White House nor raise rates merely to prove its independence, but should make decisions based on economic conditions.
OpenAI releases ChatGPT Images 2.5: Generation speed increased by up to 50%
The new Sketch feature enables AI to generate complete images from rough drafts drawn directly by users in ChatGPT. New templates facilitate the rapid creation of visual content such as posters and product images. Users can add comments directly onto images and circle areas requiring modification, allowing the AI to alter only specified parts without the need to rewrite prompts. OpenAI stated that users are generating over 3 billion images weekly through ChatGPT Images and GPT-Image models. The company has launched API models GPT-Image-2.5 Flare and Sunburst for developers; the former emphasizes speed, while the latter targets professional creation, with pricing set at twice that of the previous generation.
US Stock Market Overview
The three major indices closed lower collectively, while cloud computing and optical communication sectors strengthened against the trend.
On Tuesday (September 8), the three major U.S. stock indices declined collectively, marking the second consecutive trading session of losses. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.18% to 52,786.07; the S&P 500 Index dropped 0.58% to 7,673.52; and the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.32% to 26,421.41.
$Star Tech Stocks (LIST2518.US)$ Performance was mixed (listed by market capitalization): NVIDIA fell 2.01%, Apple dropped 1.17%, Google Class C shares rose 0.02%, Microsoft declined 1.15%, Amazon decreased 0.6%, SpaceX gained 3.73%, Broadcom rose 2.98%, Meta Platforms fell 0.53%, and Tesla increased 3.98%.
$Semiconductor (LIST2015.US)$ Moving counter to the broader market, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) closed up 1.19%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.3%, with 21 constituents advancing and 9 declining. Intel surged 9.05% amid plans to raise PC CPU prices by 10%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained 5.9%.
$Optical Communications (LIST23979.US)$ The sector showed overall strength: Lumentum rose 11.04%, Corning gained 7.56%, Coherent increased 7.1%, Applied Optoelectronics rose 5.7%, and Marvell Technology advanced 0.83%.
$Cloud computing service provider (LIST2540.US)$ Shares rose, with CoreWeave up 11.72%, NEBIUS gaining 7.73%, and Oracle increasing 2.36%.
$Popular Chinese ADRs (LIST2517.US)$ Most stocks declined: Baidu fell 6.96%, TAL Education Group dropped 4.68%, New Oriental declined 3.97%, PDD Holdings decreased 2.99%, Tencent Music Entertainment fell 2.42%, and JD.com dropped 2.05%; meanwhile, Chagee rose 7.98% and Bilibili gained 6.37%.
Stock News
Amazon bets on Qualcomm AI chips, linking procurement arrangements to 25 million stock warrants.
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ and Qualcomm (QCOM.US) The companies announced a multi-generation product collaboration to jointly develop custom AI inference chips and optical interconnect solutions exceeding 1.6T. Qualcomm will grant Amazon up to 25 million warrants with an exercise price of $161.26 per share. Of these, 3.75 million warrants vest immediately based on initial procurement commitments, while the remainder are tied to commercial agreements, orders, and actual payments, corresponding to a procurement cap of $60 billion. This amount does not represent confirmed order revenue. Qualcomm will also expand its use of AWS chip design tools and Bedrock to shorten R&D cycles.
Meta Launches Personal AI Agent Muse; Zuckerberg Calls It the Biggest Business Opportunity
$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ Meta has launched the personal AI agent Muse for adult users in the United States. The agent can perform tasks such as shopping, booking tickets, making appointments, and filling out forms, with integration into services including Gmail, Google Calendar, Instagram, and WhatsApp. Powered by the Muse Spark 1.3 model, the product offers a free version as well as paid plans priced at $20 and $100 per month, with future plans to integrate it into AI glasses. The company stated that Muse operates on dedicated cloud-based virtual machines, requires user confirmation for sensitive operations, and does not share data with its advertising systems. Zuckerberg previously identified personal AI assistants as Meta's largest business opportunity.
SK Hynix May Launch Another Share Buyback in Q4, Worth Up to KRW 40 Trillion
S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasts that $SK Hynix (SKHY.US)$ it may announce a new round of share buybacks in the fourth quarter, ranging from KRW 20 trillion to KRW 40 trillion, equivalent to approximately USD 28 billion at the upper end. Mohammad Hassan, Head of Asia-Pacific Equity Dividend Forecasting at S&P, stated that even with a new large-scale buyback program, the company remains capable of distributing substantial dividends. He noted that demand for AI memory chips is driving Korean chipmakers to increase shareholder returns, combined with Samsung Electronics (005930.KR) their dividend policies, these two companies will set new standards for shareholder returns in the South Korean market, prompting more corporations to follow suit.
USD 400 Million Lithography Machine Secures Adoption Commitments; Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Advance High-NA EUV Mass Production
$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ has secured adoption commitments from $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ and Samsung for High-NA EUV lithography equipment. Samsung plans to begin using this technology for mass production of memory chips in 2028, while Taiwan Semiconductor intends to adopt the existing 6-inch mask solution by 2030. ASML Holding, Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung, and Intel will also collaborate to advance 12-inch masks, which ASML states can increase equipment throughput by 40%. Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML aim to establish relevant test lines by 2031 and promote production applications by 2033. With a unit price of up to USD 400 million for High-NA equipment, production efficiency and cost are key considerations for customer adoption.
Is AI Computing Power Never Enough? IREN CEO: Supply Curve Struggles to Keep Up with Demand
AI cloud service provider $IREN Ltd(IREN.US)$ The CEO stated that global computing power supply may never be able to keep up with AI demand. He also pointed out that the current boom in AI data center construction is "fundamentally different" from past investment cycles. Currently, dozens of emerging AI data center developers and large technology companies are racing to bring new facilities online, where thousands of NVIDIA and Google AI processors will be centrally deployed. Goldman Sachs projects that U.S. data center capacity will double by the end of 2027 compared to 2024 levels, and more than triple by 2030 to approximately 125 gigawatts—a scale sufficient to power over 100 cities the size of San Francisco. IREN Ltd is preparing to invest up to $30 billion in its AI business over the next year, but Daniel Roberts, Co-CEO and co-founder, said in an interview: "It is really hard to imagine the supply curve eventually surpassing the demand side; it is truly very difficult."
Prominent Apple tech leaker: Foldable smartphones face pricing challenges
Due to memory shortages, the pricing of the foldable iPhone will significantly exceed $Apple (AAPL.US)$ initial expectations. Gurman revealed that during the early development stage, Apple attempted to set the starting price of this product at $1,999, avoiding the potentially controversial $2,000 threshold. This strategy is similar to when Apple launched the iPhone X in 2017, pricing its then top-tier model at $999, slightly below the $1,000 mark. According to a person familiar with the matter, Apple recently discussed raising the starting price of this foldable product to $2,199. The source stated that the company has considered various options in recent weeks, and memory shortages have caused the new flagship phone to significantly exceed cost targets. This also means that the foldable iPhone with large-capacity storage could be priced close to $3,000, which may shock some consumers.
AMD Helios excess orders counter claims of peaking computing demand, doubling 2030 AI market size forecast
On Tuesday, at the Citi Global TMT Conference, $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ raised its forecast for the total addressable market (TAM) for AI in 2030 from the previous $1 trillion level to $2 trillion. More critical than this doubled macro expectation is the fact that its Helios rack-level systems received excess orders from core customers such as Meta Platforms, exceeding initial purchase agreements. These two positive developments directly drove AMD's stock price up by as much as 7% during intraday trading on Tuesday, before closing up 5.9%. This realistically addressed the ongoing market debate regarding the sustainability of AI capital expenditure and whether computing demand has peaked. From the explosion in inference demand to the strong recovery in server CPUs, AMD's strategic focus is shifting from mere product launches to order fulfillment and substantive expansion of market share.
SpaceX index weight expected to be adjusted upward, with over 2.3 billion shares still subject to lock-up expiration
JPMorgan expects that on September 21, the effective date of $Nasdaq 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ The quarterly rebalancing will raise the $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ weighting from 1.25% to approximately 1.51%. The lifting of restrictions on over 1 billion shares previously subject to lock-up periods increased the free-float ratio from less than 10% to nearly 30%, serving as the primary driver for the weighting adjustment. The final plan will be announced after the market close this Friday. Meanwhile, more than 1 billion shares are set to become unrestricted by the end of October, with an additional approximately 1.3 billion shares becoming tradable following the release of financial reports in mid-November. Institutions note that the market impact of the newly floated shares will be jointly determined by the allocation demand from index funds and the actual selling意愿 of insiders.
Top 20 by Trading Volume
Hong Kong Stock Market Preview
Southbound capital increased its holdings in Hong Kong stocks by over HK$6.1 billion, with Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable and Alibaba both seeing net buying exceeding HK$600 million.
On Tuesday, September 8, southbound capital recorded a net purchase of HK$6.128 billion in Hong Kong stocks.
$Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869.HK)$、$Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$、$Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK)$respectively recording net purchases of HK$654 million, HK$627 million, and HK$559 million;
$SMIC (00981.HK)$、$Zhipu AI (02513.HK)$、$MINIMAX-W(00100.HK)$respectively experiencing net sales of HK$662 million, HK$371 million, and HK$146 million.
BYD reportedly targets overseas sales exceeding 2.5 million units by 2027.
Deutsche Bank and Citi, citing discussions with $BYD Company (01211.HK)$ company management, stated that the company expects overseas shipments to exceed 2.5 million units in 2027, with a target of 1.9 million to 2.0 million units for 2026. Deutsche Bank noted that overseas sales this year were constrained by transportation capacity, but the expansion of dedicated car carrier fleets and local production layouts will support subsequent growth. The Hungary plant is expected to begin assembly in November or December, and the company is also evaluating additional overseas production sites. Citi pointed out that local production can reduce import tariff burdens, and management believes the related savings can offset the costs of ramping up production capacity. BYD did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment.
Haiguangxin is partnering with GlobalFoundries to advance 6.4T NPO technology, stating that orders are already booked through 2027.
$Hygon Chip Zheng (01191.HK)$ Announced a long-term global strategic partnership with GlobalFoundries $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US)$ to advance the engineering implementation and mass production of 6.4T near-package optical interconnect products. Senior management stated that deliveries of 1.6T optical modules will commence in the second half of the year, with order visibility extending through the full year of 2027. The collaboration addresses high-speed interconnect demands in AI data centers, and the company will prioritize transitioning high-bandwidth products from R&D to delivery. Haiguangxinzheng's share price rose more than 31% on September 8. Currently disclosed information focuses primarily on the direction of cooperation, delivery schedules, and order outlook, without specifying contract amounts or detailed revenue recognition arrangements.
Today's Focus
Keywords: China CPI; Doubling of US Treasury buyback program takes effect; UDI Robot listing
Regarding economic data, China's August CPI year-on-year rate and the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending August 22 will be released.
09:30 China's August CPI year-on-year rate;
20:15 Weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending August 22.
In terms of major events, the US Treasury's plan to double its Treasury bond buyback program has taken effect. The Republican National Committee will also hold its first midterm election convention during the same period, with market attention focused on economic policy proposals regarding tariffs, fiscal policy, and immigration.
Regarding new listings, $Youdi Robotics (03231.HK)$ Listed on the stock exchange.
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Editor / Rocky