The Houthi forces have not only seized all strategic islands in the Red Sea but also paralyzed Saudi Arabia’s last crude oil export corridor. Can isolated Riyadh weather this shock?
The Houthi armed group has achieved a historic breakthrough with its fierce offensive on Yemen's west coast. According to Yemeni analysts, the group has now fully occupied Perim Island, which bisects the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, while also seizing Zuqar Island and the Hanish Islands in the Red Sea.
This military operation has directly granted the Houthis dominance over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The strait connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and serves as a core maritime corridor for global shipping traffic moving east and west via the Suez Canal.
Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, stated after communicating with Yemeni government officials: "They now have complete control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The moment they captured Mocha, they also took control of all islands facing Mocha."
The full-scale conflict erupted following recent large-scale, multi-front operations. In a previous statement, Houthi officials declared that the group launched military actions starting September 3 this year, with the core objective of completely expelling Saudi forces from Yemen's west coast.
According to battle results disclosed by the Houthis, they have successfully recaptured a total of 5,400 square kilometers of territory in Taiz and Hudaydah governorates. During the engagements, armed forces defeated seven Saudi military formations involving 38 military brigades and rescued their own personnel who had been detained for years. In terms of air defense, the group carried out 32 interceptions, shooting down nine Saudi fighter jets.
Meanwhile, Mohammed Albasha, founder of the U.S. risk consulting firm Basha Report, warned that the Saudi-backed anti-Houthi coalition is disintegrating. He stated that the alliance is "facing a tough battle" in countering the rebel offensive.
"We are witnessing Houthi victories," emphasized Mohammed Albasha. He pointed out that the Houthis added 130 kilometers to their line of control within the past 48 hours, noting that "they now control the entire Red Sea coastline, including all major Yemeni islands."
This major rout has exposed deep structural crises within the Saudi camp. Nagi analyzed that there is a severe disconnect in command channels between Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government, alongside a fragmented leadership. In contrast, the Houthis have acquired more advanced weapons and significantly improved their organizational capacity over the past decade.
"Yemeni forces have been psychologically defeated to some extent, so they are not holding positions to fight," Nagi added.
Dual blockade chokes off export lifelines
The Houthi armed forces' comprehensive advance has had an immediate impact on global energy markets. International Brent crude oil futures briefly approached $110 per barrel early on Friday before retreating to trade below $105.
Behind the price surge lies the grim reality of Saudi Arabia's crude export routes facing a "double chokehold." Since the United States and Israel launched war against Iran in February this year, Tehran has effectively strangled shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
To maintain exports, Saudi Arabia was previously forced to rely entirely on a cross-country crude oil pipeline to transport oil from eastern fields to ports along the Red Sea coast. However, with the Houthi armed forces gaining full control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Saudi Arabia's only alternative route has been effectively paralyzed.
In its latest statement, the Houthi armed forces set clear conditions for the international shipping community: maritime navigation is safe for all companies, with the absolute exception of Saudi vessels.
The group took a hardline stance, stating it would maintain a "blockade for blockade" policy, responding to Saudi military escalation with escalated measures until the aggression stops and the blockade is fully lifted. This strategy objectively aligns with Iran's macro-strategy of driving up international oil prices to counter the United States.
The sharp decline in output has confirmed the rupture in the supply chain. According to a report released by OPEC on Thursday, Saudi Arabia's daily crude oil production in August plummeted to 6.238 million barrels, marking the lowest level this year.
Meanwhile, direct strikes by the Houthi armed forces against Saudi territory have intensified sharply. Within this week, the rebels launched multiple waves of missiles and drones at Saudi energy facilities and a military base.
These attacks injured more than 70 people within Saudi Arabia and caused damage to several oil infrastructure sites. Regarding these losses, the Saudi Ministry of Energy has not yet disclosed the specific names of the targeted facilities or the extent of the damage.
Former allies turn against each other as Riyadh becomes deeply entrenched in isolation
Facing the relentless pressure from the Houthi armed forces, Saudi Arabia has launched fierce aerial retaliation. According to media outlets controlled by the Houthis, Saudi Arabia has conducted over 100 airstrikes on multiple provinces under rebel control, including at least two bombings of Mocha Airport on Thursday alone.
This conflict has deep-rooted origins. In 2015, Houthi forces seized Yemen's capital, Sanaa, and advanced southward. Riyadh subsequently led the formation of an Arab coalition to intervene in Yemen's civil war, aiming to support the internationally recognized government that had been ousted.
The two sides reached a ceasefire agreement in 2022. However, this July, the Houthis, who control large swathes of northern Yemen, announced an embargo on Saudi ports and attacked its oil tankers, directly triggering a full resumption of hostilities.
Since Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which ignited the Gaza war, this armed group has continuously attacked passing vessels in the Red Sea. Despite enduring two years of bombardment by the United States and Israel, they have maintained their hardline stance.
U.S. President Trump, mired in the quagmire of conflicts involving Iran, reached a fragile "ceasefire agreement" with the Houthis last year after more than a month of intensive bombing. However, the cascading effects across the Middle East have now caused the situation to spiral completely out of control.
Adding to Riyadh's sense of isolation, the once-solid Arab anti-Houthi coalition has fragmented due to internal strife. The rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a core partner in the coalition, is becoming increasingly public.
In January this year, serious tensions erupted between the two countries after Saudi Arabia accused Abu Dhabi of covertly supporting separatist movements in the southern border provinces of Yemen. Following Saudi airstrikes on a batch of UAE weapons docked at Yemeni ports, the UAE decisively withdrew all its remaining troops.
Having lost its core ally, Saudi Arabia is seeking security commitments from external powers. Although Riyadh has signed mutual defense agreements with Pakistan and Turkey, it remains uncertain whether these military powers will directly deploy troops to intervene.
Sajjad Haider Khan, spokesperson for the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs, deliberately kept his distance during a media briefing on Thursday. He stated that "such matters have not been discussed yet," but cautiously added that "when the time is right, (Pakistan) will take action in accordance with the agreement."