Macro News
Trump Slams AI Panic as a "Scam": Don't Kill the Goose That Lays the Golden Eggs!
Trump posted a series of messages on Monday supporting AI and data center development, questioning the motives of tech companies that have voluntarily called for stricter regulation, and stating that the U.S. should maintain its lead in AI. In a call with Jensen Huang, he described AI as the “oil” of the next 20 to 25 years, with an impact surpassing that of the internet; while caution is needed, this does not mean halting the entire industry. House Speaker Johnson revealed that Trump may convene a meeting with AI companies at the White House as early as this week to discuss next steps. Senate Majority Leader Thune stated that he is discussing bipartisan AI regulation legislation with Democratic lawmakers to balance innovation with risk mitigation against nuclear disasters, biological weapons, and other threats.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surpassed 5%, prompting Goldman Sachs and TD Securities to raise their year-end forecasts.
$US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y.BD)$ The yield briefly rose to 5.01% on Monday, marking the first time it has exceeded 5% since October 2023. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end yield forecast from 4.4% to 4.75%, while TD Securities increased its forecast from 4.25% to 4.75%. Standard Chartered strategist Steven Barrow expects the yield to reach 5.2% by year-end and rise further to 5.3% in the first quarter of 2027, predicting that the Federal Reserve will hike rates in September and December. The rise in yields has been accompanied by a flattening yield curve, with the spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes narrowing to approximately 31 basis points last week.
Trump expressed willingness to negotiate with Iran; Iranian senior official: No negotiations unless conditions are met.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump stated on September 14 that the United States is willing to negotiate with Iran and claimed that Iran desires an agreement. He also mentioned that the U.S. is providing escorts for oil tankers and has put forward claims for post-war compensation. In the early hours of the 15th local time, Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that one should not be distracted by contradictory signals from the U.S., which include both “Iran will not negotiate” and “Iran is ready to negotiate.” Rezaei said that the landscape regarding oil and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has changed. He asserted that there is no doubt that Iran will absolutely not engage in negotiations until its conditions are met.
U.S. stocks under pressure, but JPMorgan remains bullish: Corporate earnings can still support the market.
Matyika, Head of Global and European Equity Strategy at JPMorgan, stated that despite rising oil prices and rate hike expectations weighing on valuations, U.S. corporate earnings remain resilient, and inflation expectations are generally stable. Even if the Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 basis points, earnings per share growth can still support the market. The bank previously raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7,800 to 8,000 points, expecting full-year earnings per share for constituent stocks to grow by 29% to $350. Bernstein believes that the market has overstated the impact of slowing AI R&D on hardware demand; long-term budgets for tech giants are already in place, inference computing power remains scarce, and actual chip demand has not undergone a fundamental reversal.
Expectations reverse instantly; economists predict after CPI release: The Federal Reserve will hike rates this week.
A Reuters survey conducted after the latest inflation report showed that 86 out of 101 economists, or about 85%, expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on September 15–16, lifting the target range to 3.75%–4%; last week, more than two-thirds had expected rates to remain unchanged. Regarding the subsequent path, 37 out of 70 respondents expect at least one more rate hike by the end of March 2027. Interest rate futures are pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a rate hike this week. BMO economist Anderson stated that the Federal Reserve needs to back up its hawkish rhetoric with concrete actions, otherwise it risks a significant steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve.
California Governor Newsom: If Harris decides to run for president, I will withdraw from the race.
California Governor Gavin Newsom stated that he would not run for president if former Vice President Kamala Harris enters the 2028 race, thereby eliminating the possibility of a potential primary contest between California’s two most prominent Democrats. Newsom remarked, “I don’t know whether she will run, but we’ll wait and see. However, if she does run, I will not.” Term-limited from seeking re-election as governor, Newsom has publicly acknowledged considering a presidential bid and has been raising his national profile, including campaigning in swing states such as North Carolina ahead of the midterm elections. Newsom suggested that a contest between him and Harris would constrain their respective chances of victory.
US Stock Market Overview
Calls to slow AI development weigh heavily on chip stocks; three major indices close lower
On Monday (U.S. Eastern Time), rising concerns among U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) industry leaders regarding safety issues, coupled with calls to decelerate AI development, triggered a sharp decline in chip stocks such as NVIDIA, dragging the broader market lower.
At the close, the S&P 500 Index fell 37.00 points, or 0.48%, to 7,619.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 152.09 points, or 0.29%, to 52,421.20. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 146.622 points, or 0.56%, to 26,186.413.
$Star Tech Stocks (LIST2518.US)$ Performance was mixed: Google Class A rose 3.22%, Meta gained 2.71%, Microsoft increased 1.97%, Apple edged up 0.24%, Amazon fell 1.26%, and Tesla dropped 1.77%.
$Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US)$ Plunged 5.9%, marking its largest single-day drop since July 1. $Optical Communications (LIST23979.US)$、 $Memory Concept Stocks (LIST23925.US)$Significant declines were seen across the sector: Corning fell more than 13%, Coherent dropped over 12%, Lumentum declined approximately 10%, SK Hynix and Marvell Technology slid more than 7%, Intel and Micron Technology fell over 5%, SanDisk and Western Digital dropped more than 4%, while NVIDIA shares decreased by 3.4%.
$Cybersecurity Concept (LIST2570.US)$ Leading the gains, CrowdStrike surged 13.85% and Palo Alto Networks rose 13.1%.
$AI Application Software Stocks (LIST23492.US)$ ServiceNow, Adobe, and Workday saw share price increases ranging from 4% to 7.4%. These software companies, along with other software stocks, had faced sustained selling pressure in recent trading sessions. However, the prospect of slower AI development has alleviated concerns that software firms would be burdened by substantial capital expenditures on AI infrastructure.
$Popular Chinese ADRs (LIST2517.US)$ Performance was mixed: Nio rose 3.07%, TAL Education Group gained 2.7%, New Oriental Education & Technology Group increased 2.27%, XPeng rose 1.93%, Li Auto advanced 1.37%, and Tencent Music Entertainment climbed 1.01%. Legend Biotech fell 2.87%, and Atour Lifestyle declined 1.34%.
Stock News
Jensen Huang takes live call from Trump, stating that AI innovation and safety are not mutually exclusive
According to Bloomberg,NVIDIA (NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang took the stage at the All-In Summit in Los Angeles on Monday and accepted a live phone call from U.S. President Trump, allowing the President to dismiss concerns about AI risks as a "hoax." Trump characterized calls to slow down AI development as politically motivated or potentially a trap set by China. Huang expressed agreement, praising Trump for seeing through the complexity of the issue.
Trump stated that opposition to AI development "conveniently serves the interests of many who do not wish to see this progress," noting that "these individuals could be politicians or actors from China." Huang downplayed AI risks, arguing that panic has created a false dichotomy between rapid innovation and AI safety. Meanwhile, he commended Jacob Coxon, an Anthropic researcher who resigned due to safety concerns, for his courage in speaking out, emphasizing that companies should take issues raised by internal whistleblowers seriously.
Apple releases iOS 27, with the new Siri AI entering public beta testing
$Apple (AAPL.US)$ The company released iOS 27 along with operating system updates for next-generation Mac, iPad, and Apple Watch devices. The new Siri AI simultaneously entered public beta testing, initially supporting English. French, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, and Spanish support are scheduled for launch in October. The new Siri integrates Apple Intelligence with $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ Gemini. Upon authorization, it can access personal context such as photos, emails, and messages, and supports on-screen content understanding, camera recognition, and cross-app operations involving calendars and messaging. The Mac version of Siri AI also introduces a standalone application that saves conversation history, allowing users to resume previous tasks.
Microsoft unveils interim AI code of conduct, planned for implementation in model development by 2027
$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ The company published an interim AI code of conduct comprising approximately 15,000 words, emphasizing that human interests must take precedence over AI's own objectives. It mandates that models must not assist in the manufacture of weapons or hazardous materials, nor autonomously pursue independent goals, conceal their actions, or communicate with other AIs in ways incomprehensible to humans. Microsoft plans to solicit external feedback and formally apply the code to model development in 2027. Mustafa Suleyman, head of AI at Microsoft, stated that the company would not impose an absolute "emergency brake" on R&D but would proceed cautiously; the code has been in preparation for approximately five months.
NVIDIA and Palantir restrict use of Fable, demanding enhanced corporate data protection
According to The Information, NVIDIA (NVDA.US) and $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ usage of Anthropic's Fable model is restricted due to data retention policies. NVIDIA permits its use only for open-source and low-confidentiality tasks, while employing its proprietary Nemotron model for work such as supply chain monitoring. Palantir has suspended the provision of Fable through its platform, requiring an irrevocable zero-data-retention arrangement. The controversy stems from Anthropic's rolling log retention requirement implemented in late June; although the company now allows eligible enterprises to store relevant data themselves, such arrangements remain subject to approval and Anthropic retains the right to revoke them.
Google opens Claude to engineers company-wide as a supplement to Gemini coding tools
According to Business Insider, $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ Engineers across the company have been granted access to Anthropic's Opus 5 model via the internal development platform Antigravity. Previously, such permissions were primarily restricted to select DeepMind teams and high-priority engineering projects. A Google spokesperson confirmed that third-party models are subject to usage quotas based on user settings and support specific use cases, while Gemini remains the primary foundation model for internal development. Reports indicate that some engineers had previously expressed dissatisfaction with Gemini's coding capabilities and restrictions on accessing Claude, even as they faced pressure to leverage AI to boost productivity. Google is also an investor in Anthropic, having announced earlier this year a plan to invest up to $40 billion in the company.
Foreign investors sold approximately KRW 4 trillion worth of Samsung and SK Hynix stocks last week.
Data shows that this month, foreign investors sold stocks worth approximately KRW 4 trillion (about $3 billion), Samsung Electronics (005930.KR) and $SK Hynix (000660.KR)$ and redirected part of the proceeds to sectors such as financials, energy, and automobiles. The Korea Exchange noted on Monday that from the 4th to the 11th of this month, foreign investors recorded net sales of KRW 3.2362 trillion in the Korean securities market. Among these, net sales of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares amounted to KRW 1.9598 trillion and KRW 1.96 trillion, respectively, bringing the combined net sales for the two stocks to KRW 3.9199 trillion. During the same period, foreign investors made net purchases of approximately KRW 680 billion in other constituent stocks of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI). Analysts stated that foreign investors are taking profits from large-cap semiconductor stocks and shifting capital to other equities.
U.S. tungsten firm secures $450 million equity investment from U.S. Department of War; stock surges 55% intraday to hit record high
On Monday (September 14), U.S. tungsten metal producer $Elmet Group(ELMT.US)$ announced on its official website that the U.S. Department of War (i.e., the U.S. Department of Defense) has committed to investing $450 million in the company to accelerate ELMT's manufacturing capabilities. According to the press release, the transaction will be structured through redeemable preferred shares, with the U.S. Department of War receiving warrants for up to 19.9% of ELMT's common stock, as well as the right to appoint one independent director and one non-voting observer to the company's board of directors. ELMT stated that the investment will be used to enhance its tungsten production capacity in the United States and strengthen mining and processing capabilities. It is expected that over $165 million will be invested in ELMT's facilities in Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, which produce and process tungsten, molybdenum, and other advanced materials and components. Following the announcement, ELMT's stock surged approximately 55% during intraday trading, reaching a high of $25.03, the highest intraday price since its listing in April.
Bank of America expects Q3 trading revenue to remain flat, with investment banking income below market expectations
$Bank of America (BAC.US)$ CEO Brian Moynihan stated at the Barclays Financial Conference that Q3 trading revenue is expected to be largely flat compared to the same period last year, while fee income from investment banking is projected to be between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion, below the market expectation of approximately $2 billion. He noted that the M&A pipeline remains strong, but the timing of deal completions will impact revenue recognition. Regarding interest income, Moynihan maintained a positive outlook, expecting the growth in net interest income in 2026 to be at the upper end of the previously guided range of 6% to 8%. Bank of America's shares closed down approximately 5.1% on the day.
Top 20 by Trading Volume
Hong Kong Stock Market Preview
Southbound capital increased its holdings in Hong Kong stocks by nearly HK$4.5 billion, with net purchases of Zhipu exceeding HK$1.2 billion and net sales of SMIC exceeding HK$600 million.
On Monday, September 14, southbound capital recorded net purchases of HKD 4.472 billion in Hong Kong-listed stocks.
$Zhipu AI (02513.HK)$、$Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869.HK)$、$Lenovo Group (00992.HK)$Net purchases amounted to HKD 1.201 billion, HKD 383 million, and HKD 180 million, respectively;
$SMIC (00981.HK)$、$MINIMAX-W(00100.HK)$、$Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$Net sales amounted to HKD 637 million, HKD 162 million, and HKD 104 million, respectively.
GAC Group plans to introduce FAW as its second-largest shareholder; Hong Kong-listed shares resume trading today
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (02238.HK) The company has signed a letter of intent for cooperation with FAW Group, proposing to acquire part of FAW's equity interest in a certain automotive joint venture through share issuance and to raise matching funds. Preliminary estimates suggest that upon completion of the transaction, FAW is expected to become GAC Group's second-largest and strategic shareholder. The company stated that the transaction is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring and a related-party transaction, but will not result in a change of control. Both parties will further advance audits, valuations, and negotiations on the transaction plan. GAC Group applied to resume trading of its Hong Kong-listed shares at 9:00 a.m. on September 15, while its A-shares have been suspended since September 14, with the suspension expected to last no more than 10 trading days.
Today's Focus
Keywords: China's August economic data
Regarding economic data,
9:30: The National Bureau of Statistics releases the monthly report on residential property sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities;
10:00: Economic data for August, including industrial value-added above designated size, total retail sales of consumer goods, and national real estate development investment, are released;
20:15: Weekly change in US ADP non-farm employment for the week ending August 29;
20:30: US Empire State Manufacturing Index for September.
Regarding major events, at 10:00, the State Council Information Office holds a press conference on the operation of the national economy.
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Editor / Rocky