Macro News
With the Federal Reserve's decision imminent, market bets on a rate hike have risen to 94%.
Interest rate swaps linked to the Federal Reserve meeting indicate that the market assigns approximately a 94% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike, implying roughly 23 basis points of tightening are already priced in. If the hike proceeds as expected, the federal funds rate target range will rise to 3.75%–4.00%. Strategists at Deutsche Bank noted that if the Fed holds rates steady, it could constitute the largest "dovish surprise" at a scheduled meeting since the central bank began formally announcing policy decisions in 1994. The head of investment research at Lunate pointed out that the market is not prepared for either a hold or a dovish hike; on Tuesday, some traders increased their positions in short-term interest rate options to hedge against an unexpected pause.
Hassett: Trump respects Warsh's decision; AI risks should be addressed by the private sector
Hassett stated that he and President Trump "respect whatever decision Warsh makes." In an interview on Tuesday, Gary Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council at the White House, outlined reasons why the Federal Reserve should not raise rates, but added, "We" respect the decision the Fed will make. On Sunday, Hassett made similar remarks, stating that both Trump and he believed there was no justification for a rate hike, but they fully supported any decision by the Federal Reserve, noting that Trump respects Warsh's and the Fed's independence. It is important for the Fed to maintain the status quo before the election. Currently, the market has begun to reassess the AI-driven rally in equities while also digesting the impact of rising oil prices and the potential Fed rate hike this week.
Senior Trump administration officials meet with Anthropic executives to discuss AI safety risks.
Senior officials from the Trump administration held talks with Anthropic executives in Washington on Tuesday to discuss artificial intelligence safety risks. According to sources familiar with the matter, Anthropic’s Chief Compute Officer Tom Brown spoke via video conference with Emil Michael, the Pentagon’s Chief Technology Officer, and Commerce Secretary Lutnick. Anthropic declined to comment. The White House did not respond.
Tensions between Anthropic and the government were reignited by a 3,800-word article published on Saturday by the company’s CEO, Dario Amodei. In the piece, Amodei called for government regulation and urged a slowdown in the development of the most advanced AI systems to allow researchers to better understand potential threats. Sources revealed that Michael, who led the Pentagon’s efforts to accelerate AI adoption in the military, publicly denied claims by former Anthropic researcher Coxon that AI could kill all of humanity; meanwhile, Lutnick is eager to counter negative narratives about the technology before the November midterm elections.
U.S. House Speaker Johnson: AI company executives expected to visit the White House in the coming week.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said on Tuesday (September 15) that pausing artificial intelligence (AI) development is not an option, as doing so would cause the United States to lose its competitive advantage over China. He also stated that AI companies are capable of self-regulation. According to Reuters, Johnson told reporters, "They are able to self-regulate; the government does not need to require them to slow down development. If they wish to slow down, they should do so." He added, "We cannot pause AI development, understand? Because once we do, we will lose our lead over China, which will have serious national security implications affecting every American household."
Johnson stated that he spoke with Trump on Monday evening local time, and they are convening executives from AI providers ("all the big names you know") for an important meeting at the White House in the coming week. Johnson emphasized that the approach to establishing guardrails for AI must be balanced and thoughtful. "I believe independent auditing bodies are needed, and those developing this technology must remain transparent. There are some very important concepts that can serve as guardrails," he said.
Vance stated that the U.S.-Iran war will enter a “completely different phase” in a few months.
According to the New York Post, U.S. Vice President Vance stated that the U.S.-Iran conflict will enter "a completely different phase in a few months." He agreed with Trump’s view that the U.S.-Iran confrontation could end after the midterm elections. Vance noted that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is recovering, Iran’s control over the strait is diminishing, and current traffic volumes have rebounded to more than 50% of normal levels. He stated that the United States is not currently conducting offensive operations but is responding to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels.
Vance stated that the U.S.-Iran conflict unfolds in two phases. The first phase aims to dismantle Iran's nuclear program and weaken its conventional military capabilities and regional power projection. The second phase seeks to ensure Iran cannot restore these capabilities while maintaining regional stability. He also noted that future developments depend on whether Trump will continue to expand operations after the midterm elections, or whether Iran will become more willing to reach an agreement.
Crypto bill stalled; industry regulation and Wall Street M&A face uncertainty
The U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act in a procedural vote. Coinbase shares fell 10%, Circle dropped over 11%, and Bitcoin briefly dipped below $75,000 during intraday trading. The bill aimed to clarify digital asset classifications and regulatory jurisdiction, with subsequent rulemaking relying more heavily on the SEC and CFTC. Austin Campbell, an adjunct professor at New York University, noted that while regulators can still formulate rules, they lack the stability and permanence of legislation. The head of BlackRock's digital assets division stated that the voting outcome does not affect existing plans and strategies; meanwhile, the head of Off the Chain Capital remarked that traditional financial institutions seek clearer regulatory grounds before undertaking large-scale acquisitions of crypto firms.
U.S. House of Representatives shelves motion to impeach Trump by a vote of 232 to 147
On September 15 local time, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 232 to 147 to shelve the resolution introduced by Democratic Representative Al Green to impeach Trump, with 47 other members voting "present." According to Axios, this marks the third time in two years that the House has blocked impeachment attempts against Trump. Green's current accusations allege that Trump committed high crimes and misdemeanors regarding immigration enforcement. Some Democrats joined Republicans in supporting the shelving motion, while other Democrats argued that pursuing impeachment before the midterm elections would distract from the party's campaign themes and messaging priorities.
OpenAI reportedly negotiating pre-IPO financing, with valuation potentially reaching $1.2 trillion
According to the Financial Times, OpenAI has recently discussed a new round of financing with major investors, aiming to raise its valuation to approximately $1.2 trillion prior to an initial public offering. Sources familiar with the matter stated that the discussions were initiated by investors and remain in early stages, with the valuation subject to adjustment. In March this year, OpenAI completed a financing round securing $122 billion in committed capital, at which point its valuation stood at $852 billion. CEO Sam Altman previously indicated that, due to concerns over AI safety, the company would not go public in 2026. OpenAI declined to comment on reports regarding this round of financing.
Hong Kong's first five-year plan and 2026 Policy Address to be announced
The Legislative Council convened at 11:00 a.m. on Wednesday (September 16) in the Chamber of the Legislative Council Complex. Chief Executive John Lee will announce Hong Kong's First Five-Year Plan, followed by the delivery of the Chief Executive's 2026 Policy Address. The First Five-Year Plan serves as a blueprint for Hong Kong's economic and social development over the next five years, providing forward-looking, strategic, and directional guidance. The Policy Address is the Chief Executive's annual report on implementing the First Five-Year Plan and establishes annual policy priorities based on prevailing circumstances.
US Stock Market Overview
Three major indices closed lower collectively as investors focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision
On Tuesday (U.S. Eastern Time), the three major U.S. stock indices continued their decline. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, heightened market concerns over debt issues, and a surge in crude oil prices kept investors on the sidelines.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 328.09 points, or 0.63%, to 52,093.11; the S&P 500 Index dropped 34.25 points, or 0.45%, to 7,585.73; and the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 204.84 points, or 0.78%, to 25,981.57.
$Star Tech Stocks (LIST2518.US)$ Most stocks declined: SpaceX fell 3.15%, Amazon dropped 2.02%, Microsoft slid 1.64%, Google decreased 1.26%, Tesla fell 0.67%, and Apple dipped 0.52%. Meanwhile, Meta rose 0.7% and NVIDIA gained 0.57%.
$Cryptocurrency-related stocks (LIST20010.US)$ The sector saw broad declines, with Circle falling more than 11%, Coinbase dropping over 10%, and Strategy declining by more than 5%. The failure of the Clarity Act to pass a procedural vote in the U.S. Senate dealt a significant blow to the crypto industry's efforts to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework.
$Shale Oil (LIST2585.US)$ The sector generally rose, with Devon Energy and ConocoPhillips gaining more than 3%, while Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, and Exxon Mobil each increased by over 2%.
$Popular Chinese ADRs (LIST2517.US)$ In this segment, XPeng fell 4.5%, Li Auto dropped 3.3%, Xiaomi declined 2.8%, and Baidu slipped 1.64%. Conversely, Alibaba rose 0.1%, Tencent gained 1.1%, and NetEase increased 1.3%.
Stock News
Jensen Huang: No New Legislation Needed for AI Safety; Market Forces Are Sufficient
NVIDIA (NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang stated at the Salesforce Dreamforce conference that ensuring AI safety does not require new specialized legislation, as market mechanisms already provide sufficient corporate constraints. In a dialogue with Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, he emphasized that AI innovation and safety are not mutually exclusive; companies can advance both technological development and security safeguards simultaneously. He advised firms to control their product release pace until they have full confidence in market acceptance. He argued that existing market forces are adequate to constrain AI product safety and opposed viewing innovation speed and safety as conflicting goals.
Amazon's Middle East data center suffered damage, leaving some customer data inaccessible.
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ AWS updated on Tuesday that data stored exclusively in the Bahrain data center and one Availability Zone in the UAE remains inaccessible due to facility damage incurred during the U.S.-Iran conflict, with the extent of damage exceeding service design tolerances. Most Bahrain customers migrated workloads to other countries between the initial attacks in March and further damage in April. Most UAE customers restored operations in other regions using backups or replicated data. Engineers continue to restore resources in two additional UAE Availability Zones. AWS stated it will continue supporting customers in both countries and plans to provide further updates on the Bahrain facilities early next year.
Google launches Gemini 3.8 Live, supporting simultaneous voice conversations and background task execution.
$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ The company introduced two real-time audio models, Gemini 3.8 Live and Extended Thinking, which support 97 languages, real-time visual understanding, and the ability to invoke tools and execute tasks without interrupting conversations. Extended Thinking incorporates complex reasoning capabilities; Google stated that it ranked first in Artificial Analysis’s voice conversation quality benchmark with a score of 82.6. Both models are now available to developers via the Gemini API and AI Studio, while enterprise users can participate in private previews. Pricing for audio input and output is $0.005 and $0.018 per minute, respectively, and all generated audio includes SynthID watermarks.
Micron Technology launches 512GB server memory modules; AMD and Intel begin validation.
$Micron Technology (MU.US)$ The company announced the completion of demonstration and validation for the world’s first 512GB DDR5 RDIMM memory module, enabling dual-socket server memory capacity to exceed 12TB, with maximum data transfer rates reaching 9,200 MT/s. $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ and $Intel (INTC.US)$ Validation has commenced. The company stated that the product utilizes Through-Silicon Via (TSV) vertical stacking technology. Compared to four 128GB modules, the single 512GB solution reduces operating power consumption by over 60%. In certain memory-intensive data analysis tasks, it delivers up to 1.4 times the performance compared to a 256GB configuration. Targeted at AI inference, in-memory databases, and high-density virtualization, mass production is expected in the second half of 2027 based on customer demand.
Meta ramps up development of in-house AI chips, with deployment scheduled for the first half of next year.
$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ Meta plans to deploy its third-generation in-house AI chip, MTIA 450 (codenamed “Arke”), in data centers during the first half of 2027, having committed to deploying over 1 gigawatt of related chip capacity within 12 months. Designed in collaboration with Broadcom and manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor, the product is currently in the testing phase and has successfully run models from Meta, DeepSeek, and Alibaba. The next-generation MTIA 500 is expected to complete design within approximately one month, with deployment planned by the end of 2027. Meta stated that the previous Olympus project, which addressed both training and inference, has been canceled; in-house chips will focus on general-purpose inference tasks to improve performance per watt and cost efficiency.
Tesla faces regulatory inquiries regarding Cybercab certification, with a response required by the end of September.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) requires $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Tesla to respond by September 30 to questions concerning the self-certification of safety for its Cybercab autonomous taxi. Issues include whether the vehicle relies on temporarily installed human driving controls to meet regulations, whether it can be driven by humans, and whether the touchscreen possesses functionality to control vehicle movement. Regulators also requested clarification on maximum speed, as well as geographical and temporal operational restrictions. Tesla initiated small-scale commercial deployment of the Cybercab in Austin on September 3. Regulators stated that current safety standards remain effective until rule revisions for autonomous vehicles are completed.
Top 20 by Trading Volume
Hong Kong Stock Market Preview
Southbound capital recorded net purchases of Zhipu exceeding HKD 700 million, and net sales of Tencent totaling HKD 1 billion.
On September 15 (Tuesday), southbound capital recorded net purchases of Hong Kong stocks amounting to HKD 881 million.
$Zhipu AI (02513.HK)$、$Tracker Fund (02800.HK)$、$Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869.HK)$Recording net purchases of HKD 718 million, HKD 575 million, and HKD 195 million, respectively;
$Tencent (00700.HK)$、$Hua Hong Hongli (01347.HK)$、$Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$Subject to net sales of HKD 1 billion, HKD 478 million, and HKD 415 million, respectively.
SF Holding plans to issue RMB 10 billion in bonds, with coupon rates of 1.75% and 1.85%, respectively.
$SF Holding (06936.HK)$ Announcement: The Company and the issuer entered into subscription agreements with the joint lead managers on September 15, planning to issue two tranches of guaranteed bonds totaling RMB 10 billion. Among these, the bonds maturing in 2029 have a principal amount of RMB 5 billion and a coupon rate of 1.75%; the bonds maturing in 2031 also have a principal amount of RMB 5 billion and a coupon rate of 1.85%. Each tranche accounts for half of the total issuance size. The maturities are two years apart, with the coupon rate for the 2031 maturity being 10 basis points higher than that for the 2029 maturity.
Today's Focus
Keywords: August retail sales month-over-month growth, early morning Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Waller press conference
Regarding economic data, at 20:30, the US August retail sales month-over-month growth rate will be released;
22:30, US EIA Crude Oil Stock Change for the week ended September 11 (10k barrels);
At 02:00 the following day, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision and the Summary of Economic Projections;
At 02:30, Walsh will host a press conference on monetary policy.
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Editor / Rocky