J.P. Morgan's differences over the trend of US stocks this year

Show Transcript

銳信資本 Jun 12, 2023 18:09 · 40.4k Views

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to EleBank. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

Transcript

00:00 How about the US government's debt crisis to resolve May's CPI
00:03 It won't be announced until next Tuesday that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates in June; that is basically a foregone conclusion
00:09 So this week is a pretty boring week at the macro level, so the J.P. Morgan Chase trading desk
00:14 They started taking time out to update their predictions for the future macro market
00:19 Let's take a look at this chart. The basic situation, the various parameters of the bull market and bear market situation, ah
00:25 It's all here, let me explain
00:27 The one that is bearish is their research team
00:31 The reason is, these are the four points
00:32 First, as I mentioned in my previous video, the US government
00:36 Plus, government accounts, ah, are designed to remove liquidity from the market
00:40 Second, the current inflation is still at a high level
00:42 The Federal Reserve, uh, just said it would skip the interest rate hike in June. The term used was Skype
00:47 It's not about stopping interest rate hikes; in other words, it's still possible to raise interest rates in July
00:52 Third, everyone saw, uh, the Silicon Valley Bank exploded. This bank's credit
00:57 The tightening, ah, corporate bankruptcies are also increasing. This has led to the fourth point, which is the decline
01:02 The resignation is probably coming soon. Look, it's their market insight team.
01:08 Or market intelligence
01:11 There are plenty of reasons, ah. There is an economist called, uh, Laura here
01:16 He said inflation in July should drop to 3.2%
01:21 Then there really is no need to raise interest rates
01:22 The Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates instead of Skype
01:26 Then, technology companies are now market leaders
01:29 Currently, there are still a lot of institutions entering, and there are more and more retail investors
01:33 Will enter this market to boost the stock market
01:35 Finally, they think the profits of US stock companies will also improve
01:38 Because they discovered, ah, that most listed companies mentioned the term AI at quarterly reporting meetings
01:45 There are more and more, and when you say the word recession, it's getting less and less
01:48 Ah, so according to the current ah, PE ah, and improved
01:53 Earnings per share of S&P may reach 4,4,500 points
01:58 The team that watched the most, also pointed out a relatively important piece of data
02:01 It's the Federal Reserve's website. I think American consumers only have about 500 billion US dollars left
02:07 The extra deposit can be used for spending, but what do they think
02:10 The wealth effects of the rise in the stock market and the rise in housing prices on consumers over the past few years have been underestimated
02:16 If you count this number, it would be much more
02:19 There was almost 5 trillion dollars in the bank accounts of American residents last year.
02:24 With the wealth effect, consumers are more willing to spend money
02:27 So when it comes to US stocks, uh, they won't have a hard landing
02:30 Ah, after listening to this, do you think which J.P. Morgan team is more reasonable?
02:34 Welcome to leave a message or comment
02:35 Everyone is also welcome to join my membership group to watch more of my US stock trends
02:39 In-depth video of the investigation