The story behind the US GDP data for the 3rd quarter

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銳信資本 Oct 30, 2023 16:34 · 777 Views

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Transcript

00:00 The GDP data just released by the US for the third quarter was 4.9%, which far exceeded expectations
00:06 A new high since the first quarter of last year. This is a month-on-month data, ah
00:09 Our country, China, is only 1.3%, and we are denominated in RMB
00:13 The renminbi is depreciating, so the US has greatly increased again this time
00:17 The difference between us
00:19 Let's look at the details, ah, why the US this time
00:22 Will GDP increase dramatically in the third quarter
00:24 Actually, there are three big blocks. The biggest one is the pink one
00:29 The increase in consumers' consumption of services
00:32 But let me tell you, there's a secret in it, and that's this one
00:35 Mainly because of the third quarter, ah, Taylor Swift's concert
00:39 Also, one of the two movies sold big, this nostalgic Barbie doll
00:44 The other one is the biographical movie Open Hammer
00:47 These three items alone are estimated to contribute more than 8.5 billion dollars to GDP
00:51 So it's definitely a one-off
00:52 This time, ah, the second-largest contribution to GDP, ah, is the white one
00:58 It's caused by the company's inventory replenishment
01:00 One big reason for this is last year's Christmas season
01:03 Due to logistics and other reasons, ah, the company did not have enough inventory, so this year everyone replenished their inventory early
01:09 However, this cannot continue to be made up in this quarter. Next quarter, ah
01:12 It's just negative, everyone, look
01:14 Ah, the last major contribution to this strong GDP is this yellow piece
01:19 Government expenses, ah, Biden spent a lot of money, even those of government employees
01:24 Wages are soaring
01:26 Let's take a look at this picture in the September PCE data ah ah
01:28 Wage increases in the private sector are falling rapidly, but wages in the government sector are growing
01:33 During the rapid rise in September, wage growth in government departments was 7.8% year-on-year
01:37 Last month it was 7.4%, ah, almost to the highest in history, in 2021
01:43 8.7%
01:44 The feeling is that Biden is making his people raise their wages
01:46 Everyone is talking about whether it can continue, ah, under the current pressure from the Republican Party
01:50 I also feel strong enough
01:51 So, in summary, ah, America's tremendous GDP growth this time around.
01:55 They are all unsustainable factors
01:57 Ah, I read the Ark Foundation's Mudou sister, so I'll launch it right away and talk about it
02:01 This data, ah, does not reflect the actual economic situation
02:04 And I also gave it an economic barometer. The number of packages from UPS, the largest express delivery company in the world and the US, is rapidly declining
02:11 This picture is used as supporting evidence, but ah, this time's data, ah
02:15 It may also blur the Federal Reserve's view. After all, they look at the data quite carefully
02:19 I'm watching CNBC ah, this fund manager at J.P. Morgan Chase ah ah
02:23 Let's just talk about it now. The Federal Reserve sees such high GDP core inflation
02:27 It hasn't come down yet
02:28 Labor data is still very strong, and the price-earnings ratio is also very low
02:30 So he had no choice but to keep raising interest rates or keep interest rates high for a longer period of time