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美国“债务危机”在路上？

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金吾財訊 Oct 30, 2023 17:39 · 2781 Views

10年期美债收益率在10月23日突破5%的关口，达到2007年以来最高的水平。

美债收益率大涨意味着什么呢？

美国财长耶伦表示，长期美债收益率飙升是美国经济强劲的体现，反映了人们对美国经济的信心，而不是出于对美国赤字上升或经济衰退的担忧。并进一步表示美国经济现在的情况看起来像是软着陆。

对于这个观点，相信有很多投资者会持不同的看法。

美国2023财年的预算赤字为1.695万亿美元，比上一财年增加了约3200亿美元，是美国历史上第三大的预算缺口。美国的状况真的像耶伦说的那么稳健吗？债务规模不断扩大，真的不会出现“债务危机”吗？全球市场又可能会遭受哪些影响？

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to EleBank. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
Transcript
  • 00:03 Hello everyone, welcome to Financial News Value Watch The 10-year US Treasury yield broke through the 5% mark on October 23
  • 00:09 It reached the highest level since 2007
  • 00:11 What does a sharp rise in US bond yields mean
  • 00:13 US Treasury Secretary Yellen said, ah, the sharp rise in long-term US bond yields is a reflection of the strength of the US economy
  • 00:18 It reflects people's confidence in the US economy, not due to concerns about rising US deficits or recession
  • 00:24 He further indicated that the current state of the US economy looks like a soft landing
  • 00:28 I believe many investors will have different views on this point of view
  • 00:32 The US budget deficit for fiscal year 2023 is $1.695 trillion
  • 00:36 This is an increase of approximately $320 billion over the previous fiscal year, the third-largest budget gap in US history
  • 00:41 Is the state of America really as stable as Yellen said
  • 00:44 The size of debt continues to expand, will there really not be a debt crisis
  • 00:47 How might the global market be affected?
  • 00:49 We asked Mr. Martin Lin, chief analyst at ATFX Asia Pacific, to discuss his views
  • 00:55 White, the United States is facing supply and demand imbalances in the fiscal deficit and inflation
  • 00:59 Increases long-term U.S. bond yields and declines in U.S. equity market confidence
  • 01:08 U.S. Bond Yield Breaks $5 for the First Time in the Last 10 Years
  • 01:13 Created at its highest level since 2007, it has a significant impact on financial markets and the global economy
  • 01:20 Debt ceiling and international default risk from October last year
  • 01:24 US Congress lifts debt ceiling to avoid risk of default
  • 01:29 U.S. National fiscal income has not improved, bipartisan disputes lead to fiscal deficit Families As of June 16, the size of the US federal government debt just exceeded $32 trillion
  • 01:40 In just 3 months, on September 14, the size of the US federal government debt has been refreshed to a new high of $33 trillion
  • 01:49 Between September 15 and October 15, the size of new debt has exceeded $5900 billion
  • 01:55 The pace of debt issuance is amazing, the fall in prices continues to shrink compared to the original, the bond market liquidity crisis continues to holiday markets on the US fiscal deficit
  • 02:05 But one of the main reasons is that market funds are worried about the future ability of Rio in the United States
  • 02:11 Thinks financial luxury can't last
  • 02:16 This colleague has seen rising yields on long-term US debt and supply imbalances are also a problem
  • 02:22 Japan and China cut US bonds raising supply-demand imbalance risk
  • 02:27 Also explains why long-term bond interest rates are rising faster than short-term rates
  • 02:33 In addition, rising oil prices and inflation are also putting pressure on the market
  • 02:38 Since June this year, the price of crude oil has been rising, and international commodity prices have risen sharply
  • 02:44 Inflation is one of the reasons for US rate hikes, but the US cannot control national oil production
  • 02:49 Oil caused the dollar's position to weaken
  • 02:52 In addition, the conflict over land will push up oil prices and inflation expectations
  • 02:56 And it adds risk to investment markets, which has multiple effects on the global economy
  • 03:02 Compounded by global financial market volatility, the United States is one of the world's largest economies
  • 03:09 Increasing debt size and fiscal deficits are likely to cause financial market instability and volatility
  • 03:15 When investors are concerned about the state of the US finances, they may adjust their portfolios
  • 03:21 Rising hedging sentiment may lead to capital flows and volatility in capital markets, leading to safe haven assets such as gold and commodities
  • 03:30 WHILE RISING INTEREST RATES AFFECT THEIR COUNTRIES IF U.S. BOND YIELDS RISE
  • 03:35 Other national bond markets are also affected
  • 03:39 For emerging market countries with capital outflows, high yields may lead to outflows of emerging market national bonds
  • 03:48 Exacerbation of its currency depreciation and instability in financial markets
  • 03:53 As in the year of the Eurobond crisis
  • 03:55 Third, global economic growth is slowing, and the United States is one of the important engines of the global economy
  • 04:01 If U.S. fiscal problems continue to worsen, it could have a negative impact on global economic growth
  • 04:07 Investors and businesses may experience reduced demand for goods
  • 04:11 Reducing global investment and trade will put pressure on global economic growth
  • 04:15 Stock market downside risk intensifies
  • 04:18 Fluctuations in the four-currency market, US debt problems, especially the impact on the US dollar exchange rate
  • 04:24 If investors are worried about the US financial situation
  • 04:28 The risk of an early recession in the US economy will reduce the demand for the US dollar, leading to a depreciation of the US dollar
  • 04:34 It is also likely to put upward pressure on other countries' currencies, eventually leading to exchange rate volatility and aggravating international trade imbalances
  • 04:42 Facing Presidential Challenges, U.S. Government Needs Effort to Control Fiscal Deficit
  • 04:48 Reducing Debt Scale Continues Growth Services to Restore Confidence in Market Capability Shakes Dollar's Position
  • 04:55 In addition, the international community is concerned about problems such as currency and economic imbalances
  • 05:01 Take appropriate measures and mitigate global economic and financial market instability
  • 05:06 Close by, Horse Rat
  • 05:08 According to the analysis, America's potential debt crisis will have a huge impact on the global economy
  • 05:12 Each country's commodity market, stock market, bond market, foreign exchange market, etc. will inevitably be impacted
  • 05:16 That reminds investors to be more careful when choosing investment targets
  • 05:21 Thank you again ATFX for supporting the program and paying attention to financial news
  • 05:23 Let's see the world and talk about finance