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美联储本次加息真的会更高更久吗？

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Futu News Oct 31, 2023 15:41 · 23.1k Views

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Transcript
  • 00:00 US Treasury Secretary Yellen recently said something. Next, 10
  • 00:04 In the middle of the year, the cost of US national debt is equivalent to the total amount of interest on US treasury bonds, which should account for about 1% of the US GDP
  • 00:12 As soon as I say this, it's actually the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy for a longer period in the future
  • 00:16 Or the yield on US Treasury bonds has already been set
  • 00:19 But it's not that the interest you've heard recently will be higher and longer, but that it will be lower and longer
  • 00:24 Ah, why are you saying this? Mathematically, right now, interest on treasury bonds accounts for about 3.8% of GDP
  • 00:32 If you want to continue this number, there are three ways to reduce it to 1% in ten years
  • 00:37 First, you reduce the total amount of US debt, which is equivalent to, uh
  • 00:42 The US doesn't run away from fiscal deficits all year round; instead, it runs away from fiscal surpluses
  • 00:45 Then use the surplus to pay off the debt. Look at the rapid upward trend of US treasury bonds
  • 00:50 You should have known that this is unrealistic, right
  • 00:52 Second, you should reduce the ratio of US Treasury bonds to GDP
  • 00:57 Equivalent to, uh, your efforts to increase, ah, the denominator GDP to increase GDP
  • 01:02 Faster than treasury bonds
  • 01:03 Unfortunately, the US can't do it either. Let's look at this blue line
  • 01:06 The ratio of US treasury debt to GDP over the years is the same as that of other countries in the world
  • 01:10 Basically, it's all increasing. Now it's almost 120%
  • 01:15 You expect the US government to control debt growth in line with GDP growth
  • 01:19 This is also very unrealistic
  • 01:21 Then there's nothing you can do about it. There's only a third way, that is, you lower the interest on US Treasury bonds
  • 01:27 Equivalent, ah, the Federal Reserve wants to cut interest rates. This, uh, is possible, and it is the only way that works
  • 01:32 Don't look at the growth rate of the total increase in US treasury bonds, ah, compared to the growth rate of GDP
  • 01:38 The yellow line, ah, let's take a look at 2021. Interest on US debt as a percentage of GDP
  • 01:45 It's still around the lowest position in history, around 2.5%
  • 01:48 The reason, is because, ah, America's low interest rates
  • 01:51 Ah, in the past two years, because the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has, uh, interest on treasury bonds accounts for a proportion of GDP
  • 01:56 It directly soared to about 3.8%. If the Federal Reserve were to maintain high interest rates
  • 02:00 This ratio still has to soar, ah, to reach Yellen's target of interest on US bonds accounting for 1% of GDP
  • 02:07 What is the average yield on US Treasury bonds
  • 02:09 You can do the math. It's probably down to around 0.85%
  • 02:13 This means that the federal interest rate set by the Federal Reserve must also be lowered below this number before it can
  • 02:18 Yellen said that in the next ten years it will be below 1%.
  • 02:21 Doesn't that mean, ah, after this period of interest rate hikes
  • 02:23 If the Federal Reserve continues, will interest rates stay low longer?