US inflation CPI data forecast for October

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銳信資本 Nov 14, 2023 19:55 · 6864 Views

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Transcript

00:00 US October CPI data will be released at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time this Tuesday
00:04 The data this time is still relatively important. There are two reasons
00:07 First, the recent trend in US stocks is highly correlated with US bond yields
00:10 The yield on US bonds is also closely related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy
00:14 And the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy will also be affected by the current CPI
00:18 So now everyone is looking at tomorrow's CPI to determine whether the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates this time
00:23 Second, what about the October CPI data
00:25 The probability of an accident is usually quite high. The reason is that it still accounts for a large share of the CPI
00:30 This health, uh, insurance service, ah, is adjusted annually in October
00:36 If you remember, we kept a low profile last year, ah, after the October CPI came out
00:40 The stock market just soared
00:41 Ah, the previous year, uh, it was a high-profile trend; the stock market just plummeted
00:44 Well, this year, ah, Bloomberg predicts, this health insurance service, ah
00:48 There will be an increase, that is, for the next year, the monthly CPI
00:52 Therefore, it will increase by 0.5%, but will it be a big surprise that the CPI of health insurance services will be raised this time
00:59 Will it be hard to see
01:00 Not necessarily, ah. Look at the current market's unanimous expectations
01:03 CPI and, uh, core CPI increased 0.1% and 0.3% month-on-month
01:08 Bloomberg's prediction is that the core CPI will be a little lower
01:11 only
01:12 0.25% ah, some data is already known, for example, the price of gasoline in October
01:17 It's, uh, falling, and it's the biggest drop since this year, right
01:21 Used cars are also in the same situation. Compared to October, there was a 2.3% month-on-month decrease
01:25 The year-on-year decline was 4%, which accounts for the largest share of CPI
01:29 Nor is it health insurance, but the rent, uh, in a situation where the actual rent drops drastically
01:35 The CPI rent is not expected to rise anywhere
01:37 So I personally tend to agree with Bloomberg's opinion