Did the US stock Nvidia's performance explode? +10% or 20% NVDA

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美股投資網 Nov 21, 2023 19:58 · 12.2k Views

After the market this Tuesday (November 21), Nvidia will release its financial report for the third quarter of 2023. It is said that the current earnings report is likely to perform well. It is expected that if performance continues to grow at a high level, Nvidia's stock price may once again hit the previous record high. However, the question now facing investors is: with the current stock price increase of 4% from the high, is it worth catching up further at this stage?

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Transcript

00:00 Hello everyone, welcome to the US Stock Investment Network
00:02 I am Ling Yunben. After the market on Tuesday, Nvidia will release financial results for the third quarter of 2023
00:08 Allegedly, this financial report is likely to perform well. It is expected that if performance continues to grow at a high rate
00:17 Nvidia's stock price is likely to once again hit previous all-time highs
00:21 However, the question facing investors right now is
00:25 With the current stock price increase of less than 4% above the previous level, is it worth further upward at this stage
00:33 After the release of the previous financial report for the first quarter, the stock price hit a record high
00:38 But then it fell rapidly because the market had already anticipated an increase
00:44 So will this time the same situation as the last time happen
00:48 In this video, we'll share the following, first
00:52 In the third quarter of 2023, Nvidia's profit preview was second
00:56 What factors are likely to exceed expectations in this financial report
00:59 Third, how does Nvidia's strongest AI chip, the H200, solidify its dominance
01:06 Fourth, what is the most important thing in this financial report
01:09 Is Nvidia's stock expected to break through $600
01:14 Last question, what is Nvidia's biggest risk factor
01:18 Tomorrow, Tuesday, we will monitor the agency through the US Stock Big Data Stock.com quantitative trading terminal
01:25 How exactly did they bet on the large options order in this financial report
01:29 What is the ratio of bullish and bearish, and how much is the exercise price can provide us with a good reference basis
01:37 Next, let's first take a look at Nvidia's earnings preview for the third quarter of 2023
01:42 According to analysts' forecasts, Nvidia's third-quarter revenue will reach $15.99 billion
01:48 A year-on-year increase of up to 100%
01:50 7. This expectation reflects Nvidia's continued growth in the field of artificial intelligence data centers and games
01:56 Also, benefiting from the increasing demand for high-performance computing and graphics processing around the world
02:03 At the same time, the launch of the company's latest products and solutions also provided a strong impetus for its performance
02:10 On the profit side, Nvidia expects gross margins under GAAP and non-GAAP to remain healthy
02:17 Approximately 71.5% and 72.5%, respectively, which shows that Nvidia has strong capabilities in cost control and product value creation
02:27 GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses are estimated to be approximately US$2.95 billion and US$2 billion, respectively
02:36 Adjusted earnings per share will increase from $0.58 to $3.37
02:42 593% year-on-year increase
02:45 Within the past 90 days
02:46 Analysts raised earnings per share expectations 37 times
02:50 This is a very positive sign that the market is very optimistic about Nvidia's performance
02:56 Nvidia's strong performance is mainly due to the following three factors
03:00 First, the data center business continues to grow. The data center terminal market may benefit from Nvidia-based Harper
03:08 Increased demand for generative AI and large language models of GPUs with Ampere architecture is expected to drive revenue growth in this segment in the upcoming quarter due to strong demand from major cloud services and consumer internet companies for their chips
03:24 The third quarter revenue of the data center terminal market is expected to reach $12.5 billion
03:29 YoY increase of 226.2%
03:33 Morgan Stanley says the data center supply chain is expanding rapidly
03:37 A100 and H100 are still in tight supply
03:41 This means demand for Nvidia's AI accelerators is still very strong
03:46 When the Chinese ban was announced, Nvidia's stock price plummeted below 400
03:51 But it soon came back up
03:53 Despite this, the Chinese business accounts for about 20% to 25% of revenue
03:58 But there will be no negative impact this quarter
04:00 Moreover, Chinese manufacturers can actually buy chips indirectly through other channels
04:05 The main thing is to deal with the current A100 and H100 bans
04:10 Nvidia has launched a special edition AI accelerator for China
04:14 Despite the drastic reduction in performance, Chinese manufacturers will buy it
04:18 In short, when it comes to dealing with policies, each manufacturer has its own strategy
04:23 Furthermore, the launch of the top AI chip HGX H200
04:27 It will further consolidate Nvidia's dominance in the chip field
04:31 It also reflects the company's determination in many areas
04:35 First, the launch of the H200 has not only enhanced Nvidia's leading edge in the data center GPU market
04:41 Furthermore, significant improvements have been achieved in both computer performance and inference performance
04:46 This makes it possible to meet the performance requirements of data center customers
04:50 Strong demand for high-efficiency chips
04:53 Helping to solidify Nvidia's leading position in this market
04:56 Second, with AMD's Anterious series GPUs
05:00 Using 192gbhbm III, Nvidia may face some competitive pressure in the data center market
05:06 The launch of the H200 shows that Nvidia is actively taking steps to face the challenges of active competitors
05:13 to maintain its market position and customer base
05:16 Third, the H200 uses a new generation of HbM 3E video memory costs may have increased
05:22 However, due to the significant improvement in performance of the H200, it is expected that it will still be highly competitive in the market
05:28 An H100 costs about 3,000 dollars, while Nvidia sells for more than 30,000 dollars
05:33 The lucrative H100, which is ten times more profitable, propels Nvidia's profit margin to 40%
05:39 More than all cores
05:40 Film peers to achieve the world's greatest luxury
05:43 Nearly double that of luxury goods group LVMH
05:46 Based on the current shortage of computing power faced by global artificial intelligence companies and the urgent need for H100 chips
05:53 We can predict that if the sales volume and price of the H200 is the same as the H100
05:59 It will bring significant profit growth to Nvidia
06:02 At the same time, Nvidia's founder Hwang In-hoon's pursuit of computational performance is also obvious
06:07 He was not satisfied with traditional Moore's Law and proposed a faster Royal Law requiring the team to aim for this
06:14 Released a product in two years, maintaining its absolute advantage in computing performance
06:19 Next March, Nvidia will release its next generation product, the GPU B100
06:23 It is expected to significantly surpass the H100 and all competitors in performance
06:28 Both of these factors are expected to provide Nvidia with huge business opportunities and competitive advantages
06:32 Sales and price stability of the H200 chip will help Nvidia gain more market share in the power box
06:38 and further increase profits
06:40 And the release of the GPU B100 means that Nvidia will continue to maintain its leading position in computing performance
06:46 Making it the preferred solution provider in the field of artificial intelligence
06:50 Second, the recovery of the gaming and professional visualization terminal market. The results of the last two quarters of the game terminal market show
06:58 As channel partner inventory reaches normal levels
07:02 The market is showing signs of recovery, and the company is also experiencing strong demand for its gaming products in most regions
07:09 Game terminal market revenue increased 22% year over year in the second quarter of 2023
07:14 11% month-on-month increase to $2.94 billion
07:18 We estimate that the third quarter revenue of the gaming terminal market will reach 2.78 billion US dollars
07:24 76.5% year-on-year increase
07:26 The performance of Nvidia's professional visualization division also reflects the recovery
07:30 Second-quarter revenue increased 28% month-on-month. What do you think
07:33 This trend may continue to the terminal market in the third quarter. The third quarter revenue of the professional visualization terminal market will reach 417 million US dollars
07:42 A year-on-year increase of 108.4%
07:44 Third, the automobile business continues to grow. The company's automobile business
07:49 Seven of the last nine quarters showed signs of improvement
07:53 Due to increased investment in autonomous driving and AI cockpit solutions
07:58 This positive trend is expected to continue in the third quarter
08:02 We estimate that the third quarter revenue of the automotive terminal market will reach 258 million US dollars
08:07 2.7% year-on-year increase
08:09 What about the market
08:09 Expectations are high for Nvidia's third quarter earnings. I hope Nvidia can deliver impressive results
08:15 There should simply not be any differences
08:17 Therefore, any failure to meet these expectations may have a negative impact on investor confidence and stock prices
08:23 Especially considering the stock's recent strong performance, but more importantly
08:28 Performance guidance given by management may be a decisive factor in future stock price trends
08:34 We need to assess Nvidia's ability to continue its outrageous performance growth
08:40 Considering that the field of productive AI is currently in its infancy
08:43 It is expected to usher in rapid development and wide application in the future
08:46 As the speed of iteration accelerates, future GBT 5 and multi-modal technology will create more application scenarios
08:53 It can also cover all industries and improve production efficiency
08:56 So we have reason to believe
08:58 Nvidia's performance will continue to grow steadily for at least the next one to two years
09:03 However, in the long run, there are still uncertainties and challenges in the development and application of generative AI
09:09 For example, technical bottlenecks, data privacy and security issues may affect the development of this field
09:14 Therefore, investors need to keep a close eye on relevant developments and Nvidia's performance in addressing these issues
09:20 What about earnings season
09:20 Nvidia's stock price is highly volatile, so we need to be careful
09:23 The impact of Nvidia's earnings report on the entire big tech chip
09:26 Perfect financial report for Q2
09:28 Final sale the news financial report for August 23
09:31 The previous day surged 3.86%, and the August 24 earnings report surged 10% after the market on the same day
09:37 On the same day, 502 fluctuated and declined. The final closing price of 471.59 was 0.1%, a day after the August 25 earnings report, it leveled up slightly and fell all the way back
09:49 The final closing was 460.14, down 2.43%, followed by the second quarter earnings report
09:55 The price of 502 has not broken through. The recent high is close to 500
10:00 Based on the current situation, analysts are generally optimistic about Nvidia's current financial report
10:04 Some investment banks have even said that Nvidia's stock price is expected to reach 600 US dollars
10:08 In this case, the market may buy Nvidia shares early in the earnings report and early on the day of the earnings report
10:15 thereby boosting stock prices
10:17 After the financial report is released, there may be a wave of sell-offs in the market, leading to a fall in stock prices
10:21 But we need to know that the market is changing rapidly
10:24 Next, let's look at Nvidia's stock price from a valuation perspective
10:27 Nvidia's current metrics are unsustainable and will eventually return to the mean
10:31 It's possible to trade time for space
10:33 Nvidia's stock price soared by nearly 200% 5 this year, far surpassing the US stock market
10:38 From a valuation perspective, Nvidia has always been considered overrated
10:41 Much higher than the peer average
10:43 On the other hand, Nvidia has an unparalleled competitive advantage and historical revenue growth rate
10:48 So Nvidia's premium compared to the average of its peers is reasonable
10:52 But judging from the historical average, what about the current valuation
10:56 Still too high
10:57 Although the valuation is too high, this does not guarantee that the stock price will stop rising
11:01 Because all valuation models are based on assumptions, and these assumptions are highly uncertain
11:06 Especially for high-growth companies
11:09 If Nvidia's management's financial guidance continues to be strong, long-term consensus revenue growth expectations will also increase
11:15 This will greatly increase Nvidia's market capitalization. Back to our original question
11:19 With the current stock price increase of less than 4% above the previous level, is it worth further upward at this stage
11:25 This requires a number of factors to consider
11:27 First, investors should evaluate their risk tolerance
11:30 If you have a high tolerance for risk and believe Nvidia has the potential to grow in the future
11:37 Then you might choose to keep going higher
11:39 However, it is important to note that the stock market is volatile and risky
11:43 Even if the company's performance is excellent, there is no guarantee that the stock price will continue to rise
11:48 Furthermore, excessive upward pressure may cause the purchase price to be too high, which in turn increases investment risk
11:53 On the other hand, you can also consider closely observing Nvidia's stock price trends and the company's developments over a period of time
11:59 If the stock price pulls back when it approaches an all-time high, you have a better chance of entering the market at a lower price
12:06 This can help reduce risk
12:08 Finally, let's talk about Nvidia's biggest risk factor
12:11 Hwang In-hoon often said that the more GPUs sold, the more provinces. Currently
12:15 It has become a thing of the past
12:16 The more big companies sell, the more Nvidia makes, the more they lose
12:20 Therefore, developing a self-developed chip may save more; this is the best solution
12:26 Select Microsoft launched two custom chips this week, marking an acceleration in the pace of its self-developed chips
12:32 In addition, major Nvidia customers such as Meta, Google, Amazon, and Tesla have also increased their investment in developing their own AI chips
12:39 Even Open AI has begun preparations for self-developed chip projects
12:44 The investment of these companies will have a huge impact on Nvidia's market position
12:48 Over the past decade, the difficulty of developing a chip has continued to decrease
12:51 What about now
12:52 Foundry plants such as TSMC Samsung provide complete manufacturing services
12:56 It greatly reduces the difficulty of designing a chip
12:58 Furthermore, chip talent mobility is strong, making it easier to set up R&D teams
13:03 Patel, chief analyst at chip research agency SEMI ANALYSIS, said
13:07 Self-developed an AI chip similar to Microsoft Mirror 100
13:11 The annual cost is about 100 million US dollars
13:13 This is for large internet companies that spend tens of billions of dollars on R&D every year
13:17 It's nothing
13:18 Big companies want to catch up with Nvidia in AI chip development capabilities
13:22 Five to ten years of investment may not necessarily be possible
13:24 However, they only need to spend the same cost as Nvidia, and it is already profitable to achieve 1/10 results
13:31 Self-developed chips not only do not have to pay taxes to Nvidia, but they also save costs
13:35 According to estimates by Patel et al., according to Google's offer, training using its latest AI chip TPU 5E
13:43 For large models with less than 200 billion inference parameters, the cost is lower than using A100 and H100
13:49 This will make large companies more inclined to use self-developed chips, which will be a big blow to Nvidia
13:55 Furthermore, some of the Nvidia processors purchased by large companies are for their own use
13:59 But it's more about renting it out to other customers through a cloud computing platform
14:03 This customer relationship gives large companies more autonomy
14:07 Once they have a product that is powerful enough, they can always replace Nvidia
14:12 This situation is certainly a huge threat to Nvidia
14:16 In summary, the challenges Nvidia faces are not only due to the rise of competitors
14:21 It also comes from the awakening of its customers
14:24 If Nvidia doesn't respond effectively to these challenges, he may lose its leading position
14:30 and face greater operational risks
14:32 Customer awakening will have a huge impact on Nvidia's future
14:36 Only by responding positively can it maintain its market position and stable operation
14:41 This is the end of today's video, thank you all for watching
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