Market Snapshot

Ahead of Wednesday's open, the three major stock index futures were mixed: Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.13%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.43%, and S&P 500 futures edged up 0.19%. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest-rate decision in the early hours of Thursday, Beijing time, while Microsoft and Google will release their earnings reports after the market closes tonight.

International oil prices rose, with WTI crude up nearly 2% at $101.70 per barrel. Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed to have struck Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery, heightening market concerns about supply.

U.S. Treasury yields were broadly unchanged,$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y.BD)$Reported around 5.0%.

Bitcoin edged higher, trading at $81,139. Precious metals declined, with COMEX gold futures slipping to $4,062 per ounce and silver futures falling to $53.9 per ounce.

$Star Technology Stocks (LIST2518.US)$Gains and losses are mixed,$Google-A (GOOGL.US)$Up over 1%,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Slight increase,$Apple(AAPL.US)$Slight decline,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Slight decline.

$Storage Concept (LIST23925.US)$Strengthening,$SK Hynix (SKHY.US)$Up over 7%,$SanDisk (SNDK.US)$Up over 4%,$Micron Technology (MU.US)$Up about 4%.

AI infrastructure is gaining strength,$Vertiv Holdings(VRT.US)$Up over 16%,$GE Vernova(GEV.US)$Up nearly 5%,$CoreWeave(CRWV.US)$Up over 3%,$NEBIUS(NBIS.US)$Up nearly 3%.

$Popular Chinese Stocks (LIST2517.US)$Market performance was mixed, with PDD Holdings edging lower.

Individual Stock News

• Microsoft released its earnings report after the market closed tonight, with Azure's growth rate and capital expenditures drawing the spotlight.

$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$It will release its fiscal first-quarter results for 2027 (ending September 30) after the market closes on Wednesday Eastern Time. According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, Microsoft's adjusted earnings per share for this quarter are expected to be $4.72, compared with $4.13 in the same period last year, up roughly 14% year over year; revenue is forecast at $90.63 billion, versus $77.67 billion a year earlier, representing nearly 17% growth. By segment, under the old reporting framework, productivity and business processes revenue is expected to reach $36.87 billion, intelligent cloud revenue is projected at $41.14 billion, and more personal computing revenue is anticipated at $12.37 billion. The company had previously provided a revenue guidance range of $89.85 billion to $90.95 billion.

This quarter marks the first in which Microsoft reports under two major segments—"Intelligent Cloud" and "Devices and Consumer." The company expects revenue for the former to range from $75.15 billion to $75.75 billion. For Azure, the guidance calls for growth of 44% to 45% on a constant-currency basis. On the capital expenditures front, Microsoft anticipates spending over $50 billion this quarter, compared with $41 billion last quarter. Market attention is also focused on the commercialization progress of Copilot, the impact of AI investments on profit margins and free cash flow, and employee voluntary separation programs reported in the media. As of press time, Microsoft was trading slightly lower in pre-market activity.

• Google released its third-quarter earnings after the market closed tonight, with investors focusing on cloud‑business growth and capital expenditures.

$Google-A (GOOGL.US)$The company will report its third-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday, Eastern Time. According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, Alphabet's third-quarter GAAP earnings per share are expected to be $2.99, with total revenue projected at $127.93 billion, up from $102.35 billion in the same period last year—a year-over-year increase of approximately 25%. By segment, Google Services revenue is forecast at $98.40 billion, compared with $87.05 billion a year earlier, representing roughly a 13% year-over-year rise; Google Cloud revenue is expected to reach $29.10 billion, up from $15.16 billion last year, a nearly 92% year-over-year jump; Google Subscriptions, Platforms, and Devices revenue is projected at $14.78 billion; and Other Bets revenue is estimated at $390 million.

Alphabet does not provide quarterly earnings guidance. Google Cloud's revenue grew 82% year over year to $24.8 billion last quarter, with operating profit rising to $8.8 billion. On the capital expenditures front, the company previously raised its full-year 2026 capex guidance from $180–$190 billion to $195–$205 billion; capital spending in the most recent quarter totaled $44.9 billion, exceeding the quarter's operating cash flow. Market attention is focused on the 2027 capex outlook and the impact of rising memory and chip costs on cloud‑business margins. As of press time, Google was up more than 1% in premarket trading.

• Oracle has expanded NVIDIA's Vera Rubin deployment to "multi-GAIA" scale, while also incorporating Google and Cerebras chips.

$Oracle (ORCL.US)$On Tuesday, NVIDIA announced that Oracle Cloud Infrastructure will scale the deployment of NVIDIA's latest-generation Vera Rubin AI servers to "multi-gigawatt" levels, though the parties did not disclose the deal's value. Earlier, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated that the Vera Rubin system could generate up to $40 billion in revenue per gigawatt for NVIDIA. Meanwhile, Oracle is also integrating chips from Alphabet, Google's parent company, and Cerebras Systems, diversifying its computing‑power offerings. According to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure President Tika Raja, different AI workloads have varying computational requirements, and offering multiple options allows customers to balance performance, throughput, and cost. On the same day, Intel and Oracle announced a multiyear partnership to expand the deployment of Xeon processors on Oracle Cloud. As of press time, Oracle was up slightly in premarket trading.

• Oracle is hosting an Investor Day event tonight, with a key focus on guidance for the growth of its OCI AI cloud business.

$Oracle (ORCL.US)$An Investor Day event will be held at 23:55 Beijing time on October 28. Amid ongoing market concerns about the sustainability of AI computing‑power growth, capital expenditures, and the conversion of these investments into profitability, investors will focus on management's guidance on OCI's AI cloud business growth, its gross‑margin trajectory, capital‑expenditure plans, and the pace at which long‑term orders are expected to materialize.

• SK Hynix stated that all of its DRAM and HBM production capacity through 2029 has been sold, and its third-quarter operating profit exceeded expectations.

$SK Hynix (SKHY.US)$At the earnings call, the company stated that all DRAM and HBM production through 2029 has already been sold, and the shortage of memory chips is expected to persist into 2030. It has also signed long-term contracts with 14 major customers. Starting in the fourth quarter, HBM4 will become its flagship product, and capital expenditures in 2027 are projected to rise significantly compared with 2026. In the third quarter, average DRAM selling prices increased by more than 20% quarter over quarter. On the financial front, the company reported Q3 revenue of KRW 104.62 trillion, up 328% year over year—exceeding the market consensus of KRW 98.96 trillion. Operating profit reached KRW 83.33 trillion, compared with KRW 11.4 trillion in the same period last year, surpassing the expected KRW 77.5 trillion. Net profit stood at KRW 39.53 trillion, below the anticipated KRW 59.66 trillion. Regulatory filings indicate that the company plans to deliver total shareholder returns totaling KRW 100 trillion by 2026. As of press time, SK Hynix was up nearly 8% in pre-market trading.

• Apple is holding a press event tonight, and Bloomberg reports that the touchscreen MacBook could start at $2,899.

$Apple(AAPL.US)$At 1:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, Apple held its second October event, where it is expected to unveil its first touchscreen MacBook and a new iPad mini. According to Bloomberg, the touchscreen Mac will become Apple's most expensive laptop; the company has reportedly discussed pricing the 14-inch model at $2,899 and the 16-inch model at no less than $3,399. Meanwhile, data from Counterpoint shows that global sales of the iPhone 18 Pro series grew 3.1% year over year in the first three weeks after launch. As of press time, Apple was slightly down in pre-market trading.

• Crusoe CEO strongly supports CoreWeave, stating that the "new cloud" sell-off has been "exaggerated."

According to Bloomberg, Chase Lochmiller, CEO of AI data center developer and computing‑power provider Crusoe, said Tuesday at the Bloomberg Investment Conference in Dallas, "I firmly believe that much of this anxiety is exaggerated—somewhat overblown," adding that competitors…$CoreWeave(CRWV.US)$"Some very good deals have been struck," and the situation is "quite favorable." Crusoe has partnered with Meta, Oracle, and Google, participating in OpenAI's flagship data center as well as Oracle's "Stargate" project in Texas.

CoreWeave has recently become the focus of market concerns over AI infrastructure financing; this month, its bonds fell to distressed levels, and its stock price at one point plunged more than 30%. The main worries include rising interest rates, GPU depreciation, and highly leveraged expansion. On Tuesday, Oppenheimer maintained its $150 price target, arguing that the sell-off in its unsecured bonds was excessive. On Tuesday, CoreWeave's shares rebounded in tandem with other "new cloud" companies. As of press time, CoreWeave was up more than 3% in pre-market trading.

• Vertiv's third-quarter revenue rose 61%, far exceeding expectations, and the company raised its full-year guidance.

Data center power and cooling equipment provider$Vertiv Holdings(VRT.US)$Ahead of the market open, the company reported third-quarter results showing net sales rose 61% year over year to $4.31 billion, well above the $3.76 billion consensus estimate from LSEG analysts; organic growth accounted for 55% of this increase. Adjusted earnings per share surged 78% to $2.21, surpassing the expected $1.83, while adjusted operating margin expanded by 290 basis points to 25.2%. The company forecasts fourth-quarter net sales in the range of $4.31 billion to $4.51 billion and raised its full-year 2026 net sales guidance to $14.45 billion to $14.85 billion. It noted robust demand from AI data centers and a strong order backlog that supports growth through 2027. As of press time, Vertiv was up nearly 16% in pre-market trading.

• GE Vernova posted better-than-expected third-quarter results and raised its full-year revenue guidance; reportedly, it will acquire Trench for $9 billion.

$GE Vernova(GEV.US)$On Wednesday, ahead of the market open, the company reported third-quarter results: revenue came in at $12.64 billion, surpassing the market's expectation of $11.99 billion; earnings per share were $4.81, compared with $1.64 in the same period last year; and adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.94 billion, above the expected $1.68 billion. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance from $45.5 billion to $46.5 billion to $46.5 billion to $47.5 billion. Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, GE Vernova plans to acquire power transmission and distribution equipment maker Trench Group for $9 billion. As of press time, GE Vernova was up nearly 5% in pre-market trading.

• Seagate's first-quarter results exceeded expectations, yet two institutions have lowered their price targets.

$Seagate Technology (STX.US)$In the first fiscal quarter of 2027 (ending September), the company reported revenue of $4.2 billion, up more than 60% year over year—exceeding analysts' estimates of $4.11 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $7.68, above the expected $7.39. Gross margin and operating margin reached 57.8% and 50.7%, respectively, both hitting record highs. For the second fiscal quarter, the company forecasts revenue of $4.7 billion to $4.9 billion and adjusted EPS of approximately $9.20, though market consensus views these guidance ranges as below analyst expectations. Melius Research lowered its price target from $1,600 to $1,050, while Mizuho cut its target from $1,090 to $900.

• Teradyne's third-quarter results and fourth-quarter guidance both exceeded expectations.

$Teradyne (TER.US)$The company reported third-quarter results, with revenue of $1.31 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $1.27 billion; adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.29, above the expected $2.09. For the fourth quarter, the company forecasts revenue of $1.25 billion to $1.35 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.95 to $2.25, both exceeding analysts' estimates of $1.24 billion and $2.00, respectively.

Global Macro

• The Federal Reserve will announce its interest-rate decision tonight, with market consensus expecting it to signal a "hawkish pause."

The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision will be announced at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, followed by a press conference at 2:30 a.m. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, lifting the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. No economic projections or dot plot will be released at this meeting. Markets widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady today. Analysts at the Bank of Montreal believe the Fed is likely to signal a "hawkish pause," with several officials potentially voting against the decision; Hamaker, Logan, and Kashkari, who opposed keeping rates unchanged in July, are expected to draw particular attention. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Private Bank forecasts that the Fed will raise rates in December and again in the first quarter of 2027.

• The Wall Street Journal: The United States is urging Gulf states to prepare for possible military action against Iran following the midterm elections.

According to the Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the matter, the United States has asked several Gulf Arab states to prepare for a "short but intense" military operation that could occur after the U.S. midterm elections. On the mediation front, foreign media report that Qatar has submitted a new draft ceasefire agreement to Iran, with Tehran expected to respond within the week; however, issues related to the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions remain unresolved. Meanwhile, Reuters, citing a senior Iranian official, said Qatar has yet to put forward a new proposal to end hostilities. According to data from the U.S. Department of Defense cited by China Central Television, U.S. expenditures on military operations against Iran have so far exceeded $47 billion.

• Houthi forces claimed to have attacked Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery, while the Iranian navy stated that an oil tanker struck a mine and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz.

On Tuesday, Yemen's Houthi rebels said they had struck a Saudi oil refinery with a ballistic missile. The facility has a daily refining capacity of 550,000 barrels, making it the largest in Saudi Arabia; Saudi authorities have yet to confirm the attack. Meanwhile, according to CCTV News, the Iranian Navy announced on Tuesday that an oil tanker struck a mine and caught fire while attempting to pass through the eastern no‑go zone of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that all vessels must coordinate with the Iranian armed forces before transiting. On Wednesday, Unilever stated that, as war‑related costs in Iran continue to mount, it expects price hikes for its products to widen further in the fourth quarter and next year.

• The "quality‑minus‑junk factor," which gauges the relative quality of high‑quality stocks versus low‑quality ones, posted a record reversal in July, prompting institutions to note that similar signals have historically preceded major bear markets.

The "Quality Minus Junk Factor" (QMJ), which measures the relative performance of high-quality U.S. stocks versus junk stocks, surged 14.3% in July this year—the largest monthly gain on record since 1957. Prior to this, the period during which junk stocks outperformed quality stocks stretched from November 2023 to June 2026, setting both a record for duration and magnitude. Historical data show that the second- and third-largest monthly gains for QMJ occurred in November 2000 and October 2008, respectively—both just before major bear markets. In terms of style rotation, Goldman Sachs's basket of loss-making tech stocks fell 11% in the third quarter, while high-quality consumer staples such as Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola have risen 12.9% and 17.3%, respectively, since June 30. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gained only 2.3% over the same period. Stansberry, founder of the investment research firm Porter and Company, characterized this round of market dynamics as a "tech-driven junk-stock bubble," adding, "Now is the time to be cautious."

• JPMorgan Private Bank: Gold prices are unlikely to bottom out until the rate-hiking cycle ends, with virtually no support below $4,000.

Yuxuan Tang, Head of Asia Rates and FX Strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, said that gold still faces downside risks following the latest sell-off, as liquidity remains thin and interest rates have further room to rise. "When rates peak, gold will find a solid floor," he added, noting that the market remains "quite fragile" and there is little technical support below $4,000 per ounce. The bank expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December and in the first quarter of 2027, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to a peak of 5.25% to 5.5% by mid-2027, which would dampen investors' appetite for gold, a non-yielding asset.

Last week, when AI-related stocks were sold off, investors were forced to liquidate gold holdings to offset losses in other assets. On the physical demand front, Chinese consumer demand has picked up somewhat as gold prices have fallen, but Indian households have postponed gold purchases ahead of the festive season. Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC Bank, believes that for gold prices to regain more sustained upward momentum, several conditions must align simultaneously: falling oil prices, easing inflation, a weaker U.S. dollar, and declining yields.

Top 20 Stocks by Pre-Market Trading Volume in the U.S. Market

U.S. Stock Market Macro Calendar Reminder

(The following is in Beijing Time)

20:30 U.S. September Goods Trade Balance

21:45 The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision.

22:30 U.S. EIA weekly crude oil inventory report; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem holds a press conference.

At 1:00 AM the next day, Apple held a press conference.

At 02:00 the next day, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest-rate decision.

At 2:30 a.m. the next day, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a press conference.

After-hours earnings

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